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JPY

More banking sector worries

• Banking concerns. Worries about Deutsche Bank weighed on European equities, bond yields and the EUR at the end of last week.• USD rebound. Lingering banking sector risks supported the USD. A broader set of signals points to a more difficult backdrop over the period ahead.• AUD pressure. The bounce back in the USD has pushed the AUD lower. AU retail sales, the monthly CPI, and the China PMIs are released this week. Markets remained volatile at the end of last week, with banking sector concerns still bubbling away. On Friday Deutsche Bank came under pressure, with the share price...

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TGIF?

As 2023 unfolds, “Thank God It’s Friday” is rapidly becoming “Oh No, It’s Friday”. Risk appetites are shrinking across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for a weekend that could follow its predecessors in bringing more scary news. The dollar is pushing higher against all of its major non-Japanese counterparts, two-year Treasury yields appear headed back toward the lows reached earlier in the week, and futures suggest equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. North American crude futures are exchanging hands near $67 a barrel, below levels at which the Biden administration had committed to refilling...

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Digesting the Fed decision

• Mixed signals. The divergence across markets continues. US equities are holding up, while bonds continues to price in a recession.• Fed cycles. Bond markets have factored in the next Fed easing cycle. But compared to history and given the US’ inflation problem this looks to aggressive.• AUD crosses. AUD/USD remains range bound. But we expect the slowdown in global/domestic growth to see the AUD continue to underperform on the crosses. Markets continue to digest yesterday’s US Fed announcement. The ongoing divergence across asset classes continues to highlight the more challenging economic environment we are in, with uncertainty about how...

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Fed nearing the end

• Another Fed hike. Inflation trumps banking concerns with the Fed delivering another 25bp rate hike. Though its forward guidance was watered down.• Mixed reaction. Volatility around the announcements, but in the end US equities and bond yields fell with the more challenging outlook hitting home.• AUD underperforms. AUD/USD was on net little changed, but the AUD underperformed on the crosses as global growth risks intensify. The US Fed announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference was the focus overnight, and as is usually the case there was some intra-day volatility across different markets as participants digested the range of comments...

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All eyes on the US Fed

• Positive vibes. Equities and bond yields are higher as sentiment regarding the banking situation continues to improve.• US Fed in focus. While a case can be made for the Fed to hold steady, we think it is more likely that it delivers another 25bp hike. And continues to stress that ‘restrictive’ settings will be needed for some time.• AUD underperformer. Comments that the RBA will “reconsider” a pause in April have weighed on the AUD. Policy divergence can keep the AUD on the backfoot. Risk sentiment has continued to recover. The recent moves by authorities to support the banking...

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