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JPY

05 Jul 2023

US Fed has more work to do

• Fed thinking. Minutes of the last Fed meeting had a ‘hawkish’ tinge. “Almost all” think more tightening is needed. US yields higher & USD firm.• AUD underperforms. AUD weighed down by the lift in US yields, shaky risk sentiment, & weaker CNH. AUD headwinds remain, in our view.• US data. ADP employment, initial jobless claims, JOLTs job openings, & ISM services index released tonight. US non-farm payrolls due tomorrow. With the US back on deck markets were more lively overnight. The minutes of the last US FOMC meeting were in focus, and as we had expected there was a...

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05 Jul 2023

Markets retreat as fireworks fade

Financial markets are suffering a modest post-July 4 hangover, with the big risk haven currencies – the dollar, euro, and yen – outperforming their commodity-linked brethren ahead of the North American open.  Risk appetite is broadly weaker after China’s Caixin services sector purchasing manager index fell by more than expected in May, providing more evidence of a softening in consumer sentiment in the world’s second-largest national economy. The index dropped to 53.9 from 57.1 in April, missing forecasts that were set above the 56 threshold, and aligning with similar results from the official services and manufacturing surveys last week. The yuan...

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04 Jul 2023

RBA holds fire

• US holiday. Quiet night across markets. Oil prices rose, EUR weakened, & the AUD bounced back following yesterday’s post-RBA meeting dip.• RBA holds firm. Cash rate held steady at 4.1%. We expect a 25bp hike in August when new inflation & labour market forecasts are produced.• US data flow. US FOMC minutes, JOLTs job openings, ISM services measure, & US labour market report due over coming days. With the US enjoying its 4 July holiday it was another quiet night across markets. The EuroStoxx50 eased (-0.2%), with cyclical sectors like industrials, materials, and financials underperforming. European bond yields were...

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03 Jul 2023

Will the RBA hike or hold?

• Quiet trade. Minimal moves ahead of today’s US holiday. Yields tick up, with markets shrugging off the deterioration in the US manufacturing ISM.• RBA today. Will they hike or hold? Expectations are split. Markets have a ~32% chance of a hike, while 13 of 27 analysts surveyed have the RBA moving.• AUD reaction. Based on market pricing short-term AUD reaction could be uneven. But as seen in June a RBA rate rise isn’t the be-all & end-all for the AUD. Markets were quiet overnight with US trading sessions shortened due to today’s 4 July holiday. US equities inched higher...

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02 Jul 2023

Another line-ball RBA meeting

• Risk on. Softer US spending & PCE inflation data supported risk sentiment on Friday. Equities higher. US bond yields consolidated. USD lost some ground.• RBA in focus. Will they hike or pause on Tuesday? Markets & the analyst community are evenly split. This points to a binary short-term AUD reaction.• AUD forces. As shown last month, RBA actions aren’t the only thing that matter for the AUD. A solid US labour market report on Friday could boost the USD. A positive end to last week for risk markets with equities rising on Friday, while bond yields consolidated, and the...

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