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JPY

21 Sep 2023

Of tsunamis and wavelets

Japanese currency jawboning efforts have gained momentum in recent weeks, with the rhetoric reaching renewed levels of intensity over the last few days. Masato Kanda – Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs in the Ministry of Finance – warned authorities “will not rule out any options in dealing with excessive foreign exchange fluctuations,” and said “We’re in very close communication with the US monetary authorities and share the view that excessive volatility is undesirable”. Janet Yellen concurred, implicitly giving the US Treasury Department’s approval by saying “We usually communicate with them about these interventions and generally understand the need...

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20 Sep 2023

Fed ‘hawkish hold’

• Fed volatility. Fed delivered a ‘hawkish hold’. No policy change, but the projected 2024 easing cycle was pared back. US yields & USD rebounded.• Higher for longer. Markets already look to be factoring in a ‘higher for longer’ view. Interest rate pricing remains above the Fed’s updated dots.• AUD round trip. A bit of volatility, but on net the AUD is little changed. AUD has picked up against GBP ahead of tonight’s BoE meeting. Markets endured some volatility overnight with moves in the lead up to the US Fed meeting reversing after the fact. Heading into the announcement, US...

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20 Sep 2023

Compromising positions

Ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting, we note that speculators have sharply reduced short positions against the dollar in the last month, with the capitulation coming after a series of stronger-than-expected data releases widened expected performance gaps between the United States and the rest of the global economy. Friday’s numbers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net dollar position on the verge of flipping into bullish territory, with long trades on the euro tumbling sharply relative to levels earlier in the year. The net non-commercial futures position on the dollar against the G10 currencies plus the Mexican...

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20 Sep 2023

Pound stumbles, dollar steadies into Fed decision

Participants across the equity, fixed income, and currency markets are holding their collective breath this morning, with many waiting for this afternoon’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve to provide clarity before adjusting positions. Stock markets are setting up for a steady open, 2- and 10-year Treasury yields are virtually unmoved, and the dollar is little changed. Oil benchmarks are giving back some of yesterday’s gains. Prices rose significantly less than expected in the UK last month, giving the Bank of England some breathing room ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision. Numbers published by the Office for National Statistics this morning...

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19 Sep 2023

US Fed in focus

• Some jitters. Rising oil prices & higher Canadian inflation boosted bond yields. Equities were flat. The USD consolidated & AUD ticked up.• US Fed. No policy change is anticipated tomorrow. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance & forecasts. Markets are already pricing a ‘higher for longer’ view.• Event radar. In addition to the US Fed over the next few days UK CPI (today) is released & the BoE meets (tomorrow). The BoJ meeting is on Friday. A few jitters across markets overnight ahead of tomorrows US Fed decision and press conference (4am and 4:30am AEST). Equities were flat...

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