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GBP

20 Sep 2023

Pound stumbles, dollar steadies into Fed decision

Participants across the equity, fixed income, and currency markets are holding their collective breath this morning, with many waiting for this afternoon’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve to provide clarity before adjusting positions. Stock markets are setting up for a steady open, 2- and 10-year Treasury yields are virtually unmoved, and the dollar is little changed. Oil benchmarks are giving back some of yesterday’s gains. Prices rose significantly less than expected in the UK last month, giving the Bank of England some breathing room ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision. Numbers published by the Office for National Statistics this morning...

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19 Sep 2023

US Fed in focus

• Some jitters. Rising oil prices & higher Canadian inflation boosted bond yields. Equities were flat. The USD consolidated & AUD ticked up.• US Fed. No policy change is anticipated tomorrow. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance & forecasts. Markets are already pricing a ‘higher for longer’ view.• Event radar. In addition to the US Fed over the next few days UK CPI (today) is released & the BoE meets (tomorrow). The BoJ meeting is on Friday. A few jitters across markets overnight ahead of tomorrows US Fed decision and press conference (4am and 4:30am AEST). Equities were flat...

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19 Sep 2023

Volatility crumples into central bank deluge

Measures of market turbulence are falling ahead of a slew of central bank decisions, suggesting that investors feel confident in rates nearing a peak for the current cycle. Over the coming days, the Federal Reserve is expected to stay on hold and adjust its “dot plot” projections to show rates remaining high for longer. Another hike from the Bank of England is narrowly favoured in fixed-income markets, but growing signs of economic weakness could push the vote and accompanying statement in a more dovish direction. The Bank of Japan is considered unlikely to change its policy settings, with traders instead...

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18 Sep 2023

Waiting game

• Quiet markets. US equities flat, bond yields mixed. AUD consolidates. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of this weeks offshore central bank meetings.• ECB signals. EUR a bit firmer following reports the ECB is looking at ways to mop up the QE driven excess liquidity in the banking system.• Local trends. RBA minutes today. Population growth is booming. GDP is a volume measure. This can partially offset the drag from higher rates. It has been a quiet start to what could be a busy week given the upcoming central bank meetings. European equities played a bit of catch up...

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