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GBP

15 Nov 2023

Markets extend post-inflation gains

Markets are still roaring upward after US inflation slowed in October, removing a key impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening campaign. Equity futures are pointing to further gains after stock markets added more than a trillion dollars in value during yesterday’s session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.47 percent after tumbling more than 19 basis points in the space of a day, and the dollar is flat after losing almost 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies. Investors now expect the central bank to cut rates four times in 2024, up from the three previously expected, with...

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14 Nov 2023

Rate expectations

This morning’s move in bonds might not rival the transition from Brosnan to Craig, but it has reordered the global currency landscape. Yields are lower across the curve, and the dollar is down against all of its rivals after a softer-than-anticipated October inflation print. The Federal Reserve is now expected to ease policy more quickly and dramatically than many of its major counterparts over the next year – with the European Central Bank standing as the lone exception.  But long-term yield differentials are still tilted overwhelmingly in the dollar’s favour. The difference between ten-year Treasury yields and our gross domestic...

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14 Nov 2023

Markets flatline ahead of inflation print

Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of this morning’s US consumer price index report, which is expected to show underlying inflation pressures remaining relatively stubborn, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish footing. Equity futures, Treasury yields, and the dollar are moving sideways. The Canadian dollar remains weak amid an absence of domestic catalysts – and against a more cautious risk backdrop. The British pound is almost unchanged against the dollar and euro after data showed wage growth slowing slightly in the third quarter, but remaining well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone. Earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7...

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13 Nov 2023

All eyes on US CPI

• Quiet trade. US equities & the USD consolidated, while yields slipped back a little. The AUD ticked up, although this follows last week’s negative run.• US inflation. US CPI released tonight. There are a few push-pull factors are play this month. Reaction in US yields & the USD is likely to be binary.• Event risks. The calendar is packed with other releases the next few days. China data batch & AU wages due tomorrow, & US retail sales is tomorrow night. It has been a subdued start to the week across markets with investors marking time ahead of the...

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13 Nov 2023

Majors settle into ranges ahead of data-intensive week

Ahead of a week in which hard data will take precedence over central bank jawboning, equity indices are slightly softer, oil prices are holding firm, Treasury yields are flat, and all major currencies look firmly rangebound. Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore signs of dysfunction in the US political system: The dollar remains unbowed after the ratings firm Moody’s lowered its outlook on US debt to “negative” from “stable”, putting it on course toward joining Standard & Poor’s and Fitch in downgrading the country’s sovereign credit rating. And with newly-minted Speaker Mike Johnson’s can-kicking bill likely to face a vote...

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