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GBP

26 Sep 2023

Bearish vibes

• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices points to a re-acceleration in inflation. A negative night for risk sentiment. News flow has remained light but the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates on the back of still elevated inflation and...

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26 Sep 2023

Dollar juggernaut maintains momentum

Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels since 2007, and the dollar is close to a nine-month peak Defensive buying ahead of the looming US government shutdown may be playing a role, but the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold – traditional safe haven instruments – are showing limited signs of demand. Instead, we think hawkish interpretations of last week’s dot plot and press conference remain in play – which marks a contrast with the earlier part of the year, when markets repeatedly faded Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message. A number of factors may have led to...

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25 Sep 2023

Bond yields bounce back

• Bond yields. Long-end yields jumped up overnight. US 10yr around its highest since Q4 ’07. This & soft Eurozone growth supported the USD. EUR sub 1.06.• Mixed messages. AUD/USD lost a little ground yesterday, but AUD outperformed its European peers. Positioning metrics appear quite ‘net short’ AUD.• AUD events. Monthly AU CPI indicator due tomorrow & retail sales released on Thursday. Various factors point to a re-acceleration in inflation. After easing slightly at the end of last week bond yields jumped back up overnight, led by moves at the long-end of the curve. German and UK 10yr yields rose...

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24 Sep 2023

Another US government shutdown looming?

• Negative vibes. Bond yields eased back & US equities continued to lose steam. The global PMIs illustrated ongoing sluggish growth momentum.• USD mixed. GBP remains on the backfoot as markets price in ‘peak’ rates. USD/JPY rose after the BoJ held steady. AUD ticked a bit higher.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & retail sales due this week. Offshore, EZ CPI & US PCE data released. Risk of another US government shutdown also rising. The upswing in bond yields paused for breath on Friday and equity markets continued to lose steam. US and UK 10yr yields ended Friday ~6bps lower...

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