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GBP

18 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions worsen, supporting safe havens

Markets are back in risk-off mode after an explosion at a hospital in Gaza shifted the calculus around President Biden’s trip to the Middle East, and raised the risk of a wider conflagration. Oil prices are rising as Iran calls for an embargo against Israel, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, and the dollar is maintaining altitude. Flight-to-safety flows are likely to subside through the session, but Treasury yields are trading near the highest levels since 2006 after yesterday’s hotter-than-expected retail sales number raised the likelihood of more monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Cumulative futures-implied odds...

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18 Oct 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP – the tide is turning

The AUD and financial markets have been on a wild ride over recent weeks. Risk sentiment is waxing and waning on the back of the unfolding developments in the Middle East, and as markets grapple with lingering inflation risks and moderating growth. While some further near-term AUD volatility and weakness could occur if the Middle East conflict worsened and risk appetite deteriorated, in the main, we believe a lot of negatives are now already reflected in the AUD price (see Market Musings: AUD: Always darkest before the dawn). Market positioning metrics such as CFTC futures contracts are already quite bearish...

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17 Oct 2023

Markets soften ahead of key data releases

Risk appetites are on the wane in financial markets once again this morning, with a raft of critical data releases looming even as geopolitical tensions simmer in the background. Treasury yields are edging higher, with the ten-year pushing back through 4.75 percent, equity futures oriented toward a slightly softer open, and Brent prices holding above the $90 mark. The dollar is still showing signs of strength relative to the euro and yen, but gains have slowed relative to the pace set last week. Investors are still processing the implications of President Biden’s freshly-announced trip to Israel, in which he is...

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16 Oct 2023

Shifting sentiment

• Positive vibes. Equities & bond yields rose, & the USD eased as diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider Middle East conflict calmed nerves.• AUD bounce. The backdrop supported the AUD. RBA minutes released today. China data due tomorrow, with new RBA Gov. Bullock also speaking.• US data. US retail sales & industrial production data released tonight. The US economy is consumer driven. There are signs spending is cooling. A reversal of fortunes overnight with financial markets starting the week on a more positive footing. In terms of the Middle East diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider conflict,...

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16 Oct 2023

Jaw-jaw helps offset war-war

Good morning and happy Monday. Four major forces are acting on currency markets ahead of the North American open: Last week’s flight to safety is losing momentum as world leaders make a concerted push to minimize spillover risks ahead of an expected Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Both major oil benchmarks are giving back some of Friday’s gains, Treasury yields are renewing their push higher and equity futures are pointing to a softer open after US president Joe Biden said he supported efforts to eliminate the terrorists who attacked Israel, while noting that “Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas...

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