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GBP

17 Nov 2023

Global bond rally continues, weighing on dollar

Easing expectations are growing across global financial markets after another round of softer-than-anticipated data led investors to pull implied rate cuts further forward in 2024. In the US, equity futures are firm, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is on the defensive after reports yesterday morning showed import prices sliding by more than economists forecast while the number of people submitting new claims for jobless benefits began to climb in earnest. Walmart, arguably a better consumer spending bellwether than any sentiment survey or economic forecaster, released a more pessimistic earnings outlook, saying it saw signs of restraint from households...

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15 Nov 2023

Diverging macro trends

• Yield rebound. US yields partially recovered. But equities added to their gains & the USD consolidated. The backdrop helped the AUD hold its ground.• Global data. US PPI inflation undershot expectations, & US retail sales weakened. By contrast, momentum in China is improving & Australian wages quickened.• AU jobs. AU employment report today. Labour force lottery may be nosier than usual thanks to school holidays & impacts from the voice referendum. Following yesterday’s US inflation driven drop US bond yields partially reversed course overnight. The US 2yr and 10yr rates rose 8-9bps, however it hasn’t been enough to recoup...

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15 Nov 2023

Markets extend post-inflation gains

Markets are still roaring upward after US inflation slowed in October, removing a key impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening campaign. Equity futures are pointing to further gains after stock markets added more than a trillion dollars in value during yesterday’s session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.47 percent after tumbling more than 19 basis points in the space of a day, and the dollar is flat after losing almost 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies. Investors now expect the central bank to cut rates four times in 2024, up from the three previously expected, with...

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14 Nov 2023

Rate expectations

This morning’s move in bonds might not rival the transition from Brosnan to Craig, but it has reordered the global currency landscape. Yields are lower across the curve, and the dollar is down against all of its rivals after a softer-than-anticipated October inflation print. The Federal Reserve is now expected to ease policy more quickly and dramatically than many of its major counterparts over the next year – with the European Central Bank standing as the lone exception.  But long-term yield differentials are still tilted overwhelmingly in the dollar’s favour. The difference between ten-year Treasury yields and our gross domestic...

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14 Nov 2023

Markets flatline ahead of inflation print

Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of this morning’s US consumer price index report, which is expected to show underlying inflation pressures remaining relatively stubborn, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish footing. Equity futures, Treasury yields, and the dollar are moving sideways. The Canadian dollar remains weak amid an absence of domestic catalysts – and against a more cautious risk backdrop. The British pound is almost unchanged against the dollar and euro after data showed wage growth slowing slightly in the third quarter, but remaining well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone. Earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7...

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