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GBP

Santa Rally continues, bolstering risk-sensitive currencies

Markets are pushing higher this morning as investors continue to front-run rate cuts, largely ignoring the protestations of Federal Reserve officials themselves. Equity futures are pointing to a stronger open, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is slipping against its major rivals even after the Atlanta’s Fed’s Raphael Bostic said “I’m thinking inflation is going to come down relatively slowly in the next six months, which means there’s not going to be urgency for us to pull off our restrictive stance”. Richmond’s Thomas Barkin told Yahoo Finance policymakers would “respond appropriately” to slowing price growth, but warned “I’ve got...

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Santa rally continues

• Positive vibes. US equities posted another gain with the seasonal rally in full swing. Backdrop supported the AUD which touched its highest level since July.• USD softer. USD lost ground with the lift in USD/JPY on the back of a ‘dovish’ BoJ an exception. JPY underperformed with AUD/JPY up ~1.6% over the past 24hrs.• US inflation. PCE deflator (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) due at the end of the week. A deceleration could reinforce rate cut pricing, weighing on the USD. The positive run across risk assets continued overnight. US equities posted another gain with the S&P500 (+0.6%) within striking...

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Markets turn more cautious on Fed pivot

Markets are turning in a mixed performance this morning as continued optimism surrounding the prospect of a soft landing in the US economy intersects with deepening concern among market veterans over the extent to which positioning has become overstretched. Equity futures are pointing to a modestly-softer open, Treasury yields are slipping, and the dollar is holding steady. Oil prices are holding near two-week highs on the prospect of continued disruption along the Red Sea shipping route. A series of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militias based in Yemen have forced major shipping companies to reroute cargoes out of the area, with...

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BoJ in focus

• Holiday vibes. Quiet start to the week. US equities & bond yields a little higher. AUD continues to track near the top-end of its multi-month range.• Fed rhetoric. More Fed members tried to push back on rate cut pricing. PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) due at the end of this week.• Macro events. RBA minutes are due & the BoJ hands down its decision. No change expected, but there is a chance the BoJ lays the platform for future moves. It has been a quiet start to the final week before Christmas across markets. In contrast to...

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Will the BoJ jolt markets?

• Mixed markets. Equities consolidated, long end yields dipped. USD clawed back ground against EUR & GBP. AUD hovering near the top of its range.• Fed push back. NY Fed Pres. Williams tried to curb the rate cut enthusiasm. But the die has been cast. Markets looking to price in the easing cycle.• Event radar. Locally, the minutes of the RBA meeting are due. Offshore, the US PCE deflator is released & the Bank of Japan meets. It was a mixed end to last week for markets. Macro-wise China’s November activity data was generally better than anticipated. Helped by stimulus...

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