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GBP

Markets Tiptoe Higher After Yesterday’s Bruising Session

The dollar is trading on a firmer footing and Treasury yields are steadying this morning after risk-sensitive asset classes suffered the worst losses in four months yesterday. The pound is coming off its lows after the Bank of England held rates steady for a fourth consecutive meeting and the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee split into three different blocs, with two members voting for additional hikes, while one member cast the first vote for a rate cut since the pandemic. The hawks: Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann, warned that rising household incomes and tight labour markets could translate into more durable...

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Fed leans against near-term cuts

• Fed focus. No change from the Fed. Tone was more ‘neutral’ & while Chair Powell pointed to easing later this year he also watered down odds of a March cut.• Market vol. Another burst of volatility as markets digested the US data & adjusted near-term Fed expectations. AUD whipped around (now ~$0.6560).• AU CPI. Q4 inflation slowed more than forecast. Markets are pricing in a chance of a RBA rate cut as soon as next week. We don’t see this happening. Another burst of market volatility overnight with the latest Fed meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference center stage....

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Traders Turn Cautious Amid Event Risk Onslaught

Markets are beginning to wake from their long slumber. With month-end flows, the Treasury’s Quarterly Rebalancing announcement, the Employment Cost Index, and a Federal Reserve decision in the docket for the day ahead, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is up – classic signs of risk aversion. China’s manufacturing sector remained mired in a downturn in January, suggesting that half-hearted government stimulus efforts are failing to generate enough domestic demand to offset weaker export markets. The National Bureau of Statistics’ official manufacturing purchasing manager index rose slightly to 49.2 in...

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US Fed & Australian CPI in focus

• Consolidation. Better than expected US labour & Eurozone GDP data pushed up front-end bond yields. But FX moves were limited. AUD near $0.66.• AU inflation. Q4 CPI forecast to slow a little more than the RBA was thinking. But details matter. Attention will be on how services prices are evolving.• US Fed. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. Risks the Fed pushes back on near-term rate cut pricing appear high. This may give the USD a boost. Consolidation across markets overnight with sentiment waxing and waning as the data rolled in and with participants focused on tomorrow mornings...

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Treasury Funding Rally Fades as Event Risks Loom

Sentiment is stabilizing in financial markets after a late-Monday surge that saw equity indices jump, Treasury yields fall, and risk-sensitive currencies outperform the dollar. The rally was touched off when the US Treasury said it would need to borrow less than previously anticipated, essentially soaking up less market liquidity than had been feared. According to an updated estimate, marketable borrowing should total $760 billion in the first quarter, unexpectedly undershooting the $816 billion projected at the end of October amid higher-than-anticipated starting cash balances and an improvement in “net fiscal flows” (likely higher tax revenues). Investors remain wary however –...

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