Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

GBP

Soft Landing Bets Remain Dominant Ahead of Inflation Data

The trade-weighted dollar is coming under renewed selling pressure this morning after last week’s events helped fortify expectations for a “soft landing” in the US economy. On Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Federal Reserve was “not far” from the level of confidence needed to cut rates. Friday’s jobs report showed headline job growth topping expectations, but revisions to the prior two months pointed to cooling momentum, and average hourly earnings saw their smallest month-on-month rise in two years. The pound and euro are defending last week’s advances in tight trading ranges. Sterling’s rally is losing...

Read More Read More

Will the AUD’s upswing continue?

• US jobs. Mixed US jobs report. Payrolls stronger than expected in February, but the underlying detail and downward revisions worked in the opposite direction.• FX trends. USD lost ground last week, with the JPY upswing due to increased BoJ rate hike pricing a factor. AUD had its best week (+1.5%) since mid-December.• Event radar. Globally attention will be on the latest US CPI report (Tues) with retail sales due later in the week. BoJ policy expectations will also be in focus. The latest read on the US labour market came and went on Friday night without generating too much...

Read More Read More

Dollar’s Fade Continues Ahead of Jobs Numbers

The dollar is stuck in a defensive posture after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell sounded slightly more dovish in his second day of Congressional testimony yesterday. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2 percent,” he told the Senate Banking Committee. “When we do get that confidence – and we’re not far from it – it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restrictiveness”. This morning’s non-farm payrolls number could make or break the dollar’s decline. Expectations for the headline jobs gain have crept above the 200,000 mark this week, but the...

Read More Read More

Markets Retreat on Expected Fed Hawkishness

Markets are trading with a negative bias as traders brace for a hawkish message from Jerome Powell during this morning’s Congressional testimony. If the Federal Reserve chair joins his colleagues in arguing that there’s no rush to start cutting rates, investors will begin betting on an upward shift in the central bank’s policy projections. It would take only two officials turning more cautious to lift the median March “dot plot” toward showing just two rate cuts this year, down from the three previously expected. Treasury yields are holding steady, and the dollar is little changed against most of the majors....

Read More Read More

Caution Prevails as Fed Officials Make Hawkish Noises

Risk appetite is fading ahead of the North American open as traders brace for a more hawkish turn from Jerome Powell during tomorrow’s semi-annual Congressional testimony. Officials seem to be growing uncomfortable with the recent easing in financial conditions. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic last night suggested that the central bank’s first rate cut was likely to land in the third quarter, with a pause followed by moves spaced out over time. “Given the uncertainty,” he said, “I think there is some appeal to acting and then seeing how participants in the markets, business leaders, and families...

Read More Read More