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GBP

Another US CPI jolt looming?

• Mixed markets. Equities eased a little while bond yields nudged up overnight. Currencies were well contained. AUD consolidated near ~$0.6610.• US CPI. US inflation data in focus tonight. Will the February US CPI data confirm or disprove the January reading as an anomaly?• Expectations matter. Analysts look to be factoring in a greater chance of an upside surprise. This suggests a bigger market reaction could be to a lower print. Markets have had a fairly subdued start to the new week with attention on tonight’s US CPI inflation data (11:30pm AEDT). Global sharemarkets have been mixed. The US S&P500...

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Soft Landing Bets Remain Dominant Ahead of Inflation Data

The trade-weighted dollar is coming under renewed selling pressure this morning after last week’s events helped fortify expectations for a “soft landing” in the US economy. On Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Federal Reserve was “not far” from the level of confidence needed to cut rates. Friday’s jobs report showed headline job growth topping expectations, but revisions to the prior two months pointed to cooling momentum, and average hourly earnings saw their smallest month-on-month rise in two years. The pound and euro are defending last week’s advances in tight trading ranges. Sterling’s rally is losing...

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Will the AUD’s upswing continue?

• US jobs. Mixed US jobs report. Payrolls stronger than expected in February, but the underlying detail and downward revisions worked in the opposite direction.• FX trends. USD lost ground last week, with the JPY upswing due to increased BoJ rate hike pricing a factor. AUD had its best week (+1.5%) since mid-December.• Event radar. Globally attention will be on the latest US CPI report (Tues) with retail sales due later in the week. BoJ policy expectations will also be in focus. The latest read on the US labour market came and went on Friday night without generating too much...

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Dollar’s Fade Continues Ahead of Jobs Numbers

The dollar is stuck in a defensive posture after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell sounded slightly more dovish in his second day of Congressional testimony yesterday. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2 percent,” he told the Senate Banking Committee. “When we do get that confidence – and we’re not far from it – it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restrictiveness”. This morning’s non-farm payrolls number could make or break the dollar’s decline. Expectations for the headline jobs gain have crept above the 200,000 mark this week, but the...

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Markets Retreat on Expected Fed Hawkishness

Markets are trading with a negative bias as traders brace for a hawkish message from Jerome Powell during this morning’s Congressional testimony. If the Federal Reserve chair joins his colleagues in arguing that there’s no rush to start cutting rates, investors will begin betting on an upward shift in the central bank’s policy projections. It would take only two officials turning more cautious to lift the median March “dot plot” toward showing just two rate cuts this year, down from the three previously expected. Treasury yields are holding steady, and the dollar is little changed against most of the majors....

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