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GBP

18 Apr 2023

Steady as she goes

• Calm markets. Limited moves across markets. The USD gave back a little ground. US Fed speakers will be in focus later this week.• China data. China GDP higher than predicted. Growth is being driven by consumer spending. Industrial production & investment underwhelmed. Diverging sector performance points to more AUD/EUR downside.• AUD/NZD in focus. NZ CPI released tomorrow. Will the data meet the RBNZ’s lofty forecasts? We see AUD/NZD moving higher over the medium-term. Markets paused for breath overnight, with movements across most assets well contained despite an array of data and US earnings results. US equities ended the data...

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14 Apr 2023

Volatility Trends Lower as Global Monetary Tightening Cycle Winds Down

Markets are trading sideways this morning after the latest producer price data brought more evidence of an easing in inflation pressures – and ahead of a retail sales report that could show a decline in overall consumer spending levels. Equity futures are down slightly, with losses concentrated in banks that are expected to report weaker earnings in the coming days. With investors bracing for a final volley of rate hikes from major central banks—and positioning for cuts that seem likely to follow—short-term yields are edging up, but remain stable across the rest of the curve. The dollar is flat against most...

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13 Apr 2023

USD downturn

• USD lower. Weaker US jobless claims and PPI data has reinforced thinking the US Fed is nearing the end of its hiking phase. This has weighed on the USD.• AUD rebound. The weaker USD, positive risk sentiment, and repricing in RBA rate hike expectations following the stronger labour force report have boosted the AUD.• US retail sales in focus. US retail sales are released tonight. Leading indicators point to a softer result. A positive night for risk sentiment, with softer US data supporting expectations the US Fed could be nearing the end of its rate hiking phase. Equities were...

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13 Apr 2023

Australian labour market: As good as it gets

The Australian labour force report is notoriously volatile, and the March data generated yet another, albeit positive, surprise. Employment rose more than anticipated, with 53,000 jobs added in the month. This follows the ~64,000 jobs created in February. The mix was also favorable, with full-time employment leading the way (+72,200 in March). Labour market conditions remain tight. The employment-to-population ratio is historically high (now 64.4%), as is the participation rate, while unemployment is still very low. At 3.5% the unemployment rate remains near the lowest it has been since the early-1970’s. Indeed, on the monthly data going back to 1978,...

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12 Apr 2023

US Inflation: something for everyone

• US CPI. Headline inflation slowed a bit more than expected, but core inflation remains high. The conflicting signals generated intra-day volatility.• Softer USD. The USD lost some ground. But will it last? Sticky US core inflation points to another Fed rate hike. Rate cut pricing for later this year looks misplaced.• AUD mixed. AUD focus today will be on the Australian labour market data. Reopened borders mean the hurdle to keep unemployment steady has risen. The latest read on US CPI inflation was the focus overnight. There was something for everyone in the data, and this generated divergence across...

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