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GBP

24 Jul 2023

Diverging growth trends

• European growth. EUR lower after Eurozone PMIs underwhelm. The shift in relative yield differentials supported the USD.• China Politburo. The leadership acknowledged the “difficulties”, & while it signaled it may inject fresh stimulus, no concrete measures were unveiled.• AUD events. Australia Q2 CPI due tomorrow, with the US Fed rate announcement & Chair Powell’s press conference on Thursday morning. Mixed performance across markets overnight, with divergence in the US and European business PMI data in focus. The impact of the rapid-fire policy tightening is bubbling to the surface. In Europe, falls in the PMI suggest growth momentum has slowed...

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23 Jul 2023

A busy week ahead

• Firmer USD. The USD has continued to claw back ground. The AUD has remained on the backfoot and is now ~2.4% below its mid-July high.• Busy week. Locally, Q2 CPI (Weds) & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, the US Fed (Thurs), ECB (Thurs) & BoJ (Fri) meet.• More AUD pressure? On net, we think the upcoming events/data could give the USD some more support, with AUD headwinds still in place. Markets had a quiet end to last week. But things could heat up this week with a string of major data points and central bank meetings on the...

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20 Jul 2023

USD revival continues

• Stronger USD. US jobless claims declined, another sign the labour market is still tight. US bond yields rose, supporting the USD.• AUD round trip. The AUD’s Australian labour force & stronger CNH induced gains unwound overnight. AUD a bit firmer on the crosses.• Next week. Q2 AU CPI (26 July) could make or break the case for an August RBA hike. US Fed, ECB, & BoJ policy decisions also on the schedule. A more cautious tone across markets, with a round of disappointing tech-sector earnings results and ongoing signs of tight labour market conditions rattling nerves as it points...

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19 Jul 2023

UK CPI surprise

• UK CPI. UK yields plunged & GBP weakened after UK inflation came in lower than expected. This helped boost the USD.• AU jobs. Australian jobs report released today. The data has been more volatile than usual recently. A downside surprise would be a AUD negative.• AUD sluggish. Firmer USD has weighed on the AUD. Beyond the AU jobs data, the US Fed meeting is coming into focus. Another hike expected next week. Inflation outcomes continue to drive markets. Attention overnight was in Europe. For the first time in 5 months, UK CPI inflation undershot expectations. Headline UK inflation slowed...

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19 Jul 2023

Dollar climbs against rivals as rest-of-world rate expectations fall

As another trading day dawns, markets look ever more optimistic that the worst is behind the economy, in both growth and inflation terms. Global equity indices are up and government bond yields are down after the UK reported a sharp decline in inflation pressures, measures of expected volatility are plumbing post-pandemic lows, and the dollar is gaining against most of its peers as rate differentials tilt back in its favour. Inflation fell more quickly than expected in the UK last month, easing pressure on the Bank of England and helping take some air out of the pound. Numbers released by the Office...

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