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GBP

11 Oct 2023

US inflation in focus

• Mixed signals. Markets brushed off the hotter than expected headline US PPI, with the minutes of the last policy meeting reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.• USD volatility. Long-end US bond yields continue to fall as markets pare back further US Fed rate hike bets. The USD is near the bottom of its October range.• AUD holding. AUD whipped around a little overnight, but on net it is still tracking above ~$0.64 (~2% above recent lows). US inflation data released tonight. Markets were generally subdued overnight. The modest knee-jerk strength in the USD, lift in bond yields, and softness in...

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10 Oct 2023

A shift in the Fed’s tone?

• Positive tone. Cautious rhetoric from Fed officials is weighing on bond yields & the USD, & boosting risk sentiment despite the Middle East conflict.• AUD ticking up. The downshift in the USD & reports China is considering a new round of stimulus is helping the AUD. The RBA’s Kent speaks today.• US data. US PPI inflation released tonight, as are the minutes of the last Fed policy meeting. The important US CPI report is due tomorrow night. Risk sentiment has remained positive with markets taking a somewhat sanguine view about the implications of the Middle East events. Oil prices...

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10 Oct 2023

Markets rebound on dovish Fedspeak

Risk appetite is improving after a flock of Federal Reserve officials executed what looked a lot like a communications pivot yesterday, shifting away from the higher-for-longer message that dominated rhetoric for months. Speaking at an economics conference, the Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan suggested that a rise in the bond term premium – the yield difference demanded by investors for taking long-term risk – “could do some of the work of cooling the economy for us, leaving less need for additional monetary tightening”, and her colleague Vice Chair Jefferson said “We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we...

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09 Oct 2023

AUD turnaround

• Risk-off/risk-on. Oil rose ~4%, but the firmer USD & dip in equities unwound overnight. Developments & Fed comments weighed on US rates.• AUD rebound. A weaker USD & improved risk sentiment boosted the AUD. Australia’s position as a net energy exporter is also AUD supportive.• AU data. Cons. confidence & bus. conditions due today. Population growth is somewhat offsetting the impact on the economy from higher rates. Events in the Middle East continue to dominate the headlines with the conflict still raging and the implications of the increased geopolitical risks across the region still being worked out. However, in...

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06 Oct 2023

Currencies flatline into jobs reports

The dollar and Treasury yields are under pressure ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that could shed more light on how the economy is holding up amid the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades. The trade-weighted greenback is almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s levels, with week-to-date gains at just 0.2 percent, while ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.73 percent, well off Tuesday’s 4.87 percent high. The pound is struggling to gain momentum after the Bank of England’s Ben Broadbent yesterday articulated a change in the central bank’s reaction function, appearing to suggest that growth risks were beginning to...

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