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EUR

30 Nov 2023

USD rebound. But for how long?

• Mixed markets. Equities edged higher, bond yields rose, & the USD rebounded. The AUD has slipped back over the past few sessions.• Data pulse. Eurozone CPI slowed more than expected, weighing on EUR. US data showed spending & inflation are moderating. Unemployment claims are rising.• AUD dips. AUD has given back some ground. RBA next week. No change expected, but we think the pressure to move again in early-2024 remains. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets overnight. However, while some of it was macro related, month-end ‘window dressing’ as investors rebalance exposures after sharp moves over...

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30 Nov 2023

Uneasy calm prevails ahead of US data

Currency markets are marking time ahead of data that is expected to show US economic activity slowing from the pace set in the third quarter. The October personal income and spending report should show signs of an across-the-board deceleration, with weaker wage growth and increasing consumer restraint translating into softer inflation rates. Increases in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure – the core personal consumption expenditures index – are seen falling to 0.2 percent month-over-month, down from 0.3 percent previously, and 3.5 percent year-over-year, versus the prior 3.7 percent. This would put underlying inflation pressures on track toward undershooting the central...

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29 Nov 2023

Rate cut bets solidify, pushing global markets higher

Markets are high on rate-cut hopium again this morning, with risk-sensitive assets extending a rally that began yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller set the stage for a policy pivot in early 2024. In a speech and interview, the erstwhile hawk said he was “increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent,”—indicating that the central bank’s rate-setting committee was unlikely to raise rates further—before suggesting that a “hard landing” wouldn’t necessarily be needed to prompt rate cuts. If the decline in inflation continues “for several more months… three months, four...

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28 Nov 2023

USD continues to lose its shine

• Fed rhetoric. Comments by the Fed’s Waller were in focus. Waller’s message supported the view that the next Fed move will probably be a rate cut.• Market repricing. The pull-back in US bond yields & the USD extended. EUR, NZD & AUD edged up to multi-month highs. USD/JPY lost some ground.• Trans-Tasman Events. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator due today. A slowdown in annual inflation is predicted. RBNZ expected to keep rates steady. The pull-back in bond yields and the USD extended overnight as expectations that the US Fed’s tightening cycle has ended were reinforced by policymaker comments. The...

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28 Nov 2023

Dollar steadies amid softer flows

The dollar is trading just above a three-month low and Treasury yields are creeping higher after yesterday’s drop. Benchmark ten-year rates tumbled more than 10 basis points during the session after the government auctioned $109 billion in short-term notes without triggering any turmoil, adding to a weaker-than-forecast new home sales number in convincing investors that markets and the economy are beginning to normalize after a prolonged sequence of unusual developments. The euro is inching lower in early trade, failing to gain traction after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel tried pushing back against rate cut expectations. “It would be premature to lower...

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