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EUR

23 Jan 2024

Market Moves Run Out of Oomph

After a strong start to the year, rallies in US equity markets and the dollar appear to be nearing exhaustion this morning. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a flat open and the greenback is inching higher on a stabilization in ten-year Treasury yields above the 4.1-percent threshold. The Canadian dollar is drifting lower as traders brace for a cautiously-dovish central bank decision tomorrow. The Japanese yen is modestly stronger after the Bank of Japan left policy settings intact yet signalled a move out of negative rates territory was still in the offing. Policymakers left the short-term benchmark rate at...

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22 Jan 2024

Will the BoJ hold the line?

• Subdued markets. US equities added to their gains, bond yields drifted a bit lower, & the USD ticked up. AUD slipped back towards ~$0.6570.• BoJ decision. No changes by the BoJ anticipated today. But there is always scope for a surprise. If it were to occur, the ‘under-valued’ JPY would lift.• NZ inflation. Q4 NZ CPI due tomorrow. Inflation slowdown set to extend. A large drop could reinforce RBNZ rate cut views, a support for AUD/NZD. It has been quiet start to the week across markets. This isn’t surprising given the lack of economic data releases and with members...

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21 Jan 2024

Global events in focus

• Upbeat tone. US S&P500 closed at a record high. Base metals prices lifted. The USD drifted a little lower & the AUD clawed back a bit more ground.• Bond yields. US yields were, on net, little changed. Ahead of the blackout period a few Fed members spoke. Odds of a March rate cut below ~50%.• Event radar. Offshore, the macro focus this week will be on the BoJ, Q4 NZ CPI, the Eurozone PMIs, ECB decision, Q4 US GDP, & US PCE deflator. The relatively more upbeat mood in markets continued Friday with the tech sector inspired upswing in...

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18 Jan 2024

Markets calm down, but for how long?

• Improved sentiment. Equities took the latest uptick in the US 10yr yield in their stride. Limited FX moves with the AUD a relative outperformer for a change.• AU jobs. The ‘labour force lottery’ lived up to its volatile nature. Following a few strong months employment fell sharply but unemployment held steady.• Vol. to continue. The laundry list of uncertainties and macro/geopolitical flashpoints suggests the recent volatility could be a taste of things to come. Risk sentiment improved overnight with a further modest rise in long-end bond yields not causing the same market turbulence as it has recently. On the...

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18 Jan 2024

Dollar Gains Ease As Newsflow Slows

The dollar looks set to break its four-day winning streak, reversing some of its gains as traders and investors tiptoe back into risk-sensitive assets within a quieter economic data environment. North American equity futures are building up to a mildly-positive open, Treasury yields are slipping, and most currency majors are posting incremental gains. Oil prices are pushing higher after the US hit another 14 Houthi launch sites in Yemen, and Pakistan launched an aerial assault against targets in Iran. The attack comes after an Iranian missile strike on Pakistan-based militants on Tuesday, and threatens to escalate into a wider conflict...

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