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EUR

28 Feb 2024

Antipodean FX underperformance

• Negative vibes. A slightly more bearish tone ahead of tonight’s US PCE deflator data. Equities & bond yields a bit lower. AUD & NZD underperform.• RBNZ holds. RBNZ clipped the markets hawkish wings. Rates held steady & odds of another hike were watered down. NZD fell. This dragged on the AUD.• AU CPI. Headline inflation failed to re-accelerate in January. But there was little new info on services prices. AU retail sales released today. A slightly more bearish tone across markets overnight as traders gear up for the release of the US PCE deflator (the US Fed’s preferred inflation...

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28 Feb 2024

Dollar Gains on Subdued Risk Appetite 

Good morning. The dollar is gaining strength before the North American open, bolstered by a broad-based worsening in risk appetite as investors lower expectations for how much the Federal Reserve is likely to lower rates. Equity futures are suffering losses in premarket trading, Treasury yields are steady, and both major oil benchmarks are slipping as US inventories continue to build. Economists expect a small downward revision in fourth quarter gross domestic product when the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes updated numbers this morning. The first iteration pointed to the economy expanding at a 3.3 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate, but...

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27 Feb 2024

Will the RBNZ re-start is hiking cycle?

• Low vol. US/European equities consolidated, while bond yields nudged up. FX markets were well contained. AUD range traded over the past 24hrs.• RBNZ decision. RBNZ meets today. Markets are assigning a ~21% chance they hike rates. No change could see the NZD fall & AUD/NZD snap back.• AU CPI. January reading of the monthly CPI indicator due today. Annual inflation forecast to re-accelerate. This may catch the eye & give the AUD a boost. Another uneventful session overnight. US and European equities consolidated (S&P500 +0.1%), with yesterday’s lift in Asia not flowing through (China’s CSI300 index rose 1.2%, its...

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26 Feb 2024

Rate markets continue to adjust

• Yields rise. Near-term rate cut bets continue to be trimmed back. This pushed up European & US bond yields, with EUR a little firmer.• Low vol. Outside of bonds, volatility across other major asset markets is below average. Japanese inflation, Fed speakers & US data in focus today.• AUD softer. Lower base metal prices have exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD. But correlations between the AUD & iron ore aren’t what they used to be. The subdued market performance has continued with relatively modest moves across most asset classes at the start of the week. As our...

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26 Feb 2024

Currency Volatility Continues to Fall

Good morning. With a barrage of economic data releases and central bank speeches scheduled in the days ahead, traders remain unwilling to take big directional positions. Treasury yields are little changed, equity futures are setting up for a flat open, oil prices are down slightly, and the dollar is holding last week’s gains. Volatility in the currency markets continues to drift lower, and it’s admittedly difficult to see what might break this dynamic. 3-month at-the-money implied option volatility We count at least fourteen appearances from Fed policymakers on the schedule this week, but most are likely to follow in Governor...

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