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04 Apr 2025

Bloodshed Continues As Markets Price US Downturn

A global market selloff triggered by Donald Trump’s effort to upend the global trading system is still underway this morning, with equity futures pointing to further losses after trillions of dollars in value was erased during yesterday’s session. Most major US and international indices are down more than 5 percent from Tuesday’s levels, benchmark ten-year Treasuries are yielding less than 3.9 percent for the first time since early October, and measures of implied volatility—expectations for more turbulence in the future—are holding near levels last hit during August’s unwind in the yen carry trade and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank...

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03 Apr 2025

Global Selloff Ensues After Trump Rips Up World Trade Framework

Financial markets are in freefall across the planet after Donald Trump took aim at the international trading system with the most significant package of tariff increases in more than a century, threatening to inflict a third systemic blow against global growth in as many decades. The dollar is down more than 2 percent against a basket of its major counterparts, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields have fallen through the 4.05 percent threshold, and major North American equity markets are set to open more than 3 percent lower after a selloff rippled across Europe and Asia in the overnight session. Trump’s tariff...

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01 Apr 2025

Brace for tariff impact

• US tariffs. US set to unveil its latest tariffs tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty on what will be announced. This can trigger another bout of volatility.• Holding on. Equities rose overnight, while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD clawed back a bit of lost ground.• RBA hold. No change by RBA yesterday. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. There are upside & downside risks. Cut in May possible, but isn’t locked in. Global Trends The US’ ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement is almost here. ‘Liberation Day’, as President Trump is calling it, takes place tomorrow with the US set to unveil the...

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01 Apr 2025

Markets Go Quiet Ahead of Tariff Decision

Trading activity is subsiding across financial markets this morning as participants prepare for today’s US job openings and Institute for Supply Management reports, and brace for tomorrow’s tariff decision. Equity markets are giving back some of yesterday’s late-session gains, ten-year Treasury yields continue to edge lower, and the greenback is trading flat against its major counterparts. Currencies look largely rangebound, but the euro is trading with a softer bias after bloc-wide inflation slowed last month, clearing the way for a rate cut at the European Central Bank’s April meeting. According to an update published by Eurostat this morning, consumer prices...

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31 Mar 2025

Market Selloff Accelerates as Tariff “Liberation Day” Comes Into Focus

Global financial markets are caught in a worsening downturn as the White House prepares to unleash its most significant round of trade levies yet. With President Trump expected to unveil broad-ranging reciprocal tariffs against trading partners on Wednesday, North American equity markets are setting up for a third day of losses, safe-haven demand is pushing benchmark ten-year Treasury yields below the 4.2-percent threshold, and the trade-weighted greenback is slipping against its major rivals as investors pursue growth opportunities outside the United States. Uncertainty is high. After a series of threats, drip-feed announcements, delays, and reversals, markets have no clear understanding...

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