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EUR

04 Sep 2024

Rate expectations jolted

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market is rebalancing. Fed rate cuts are coming. Non-farm payrolls will make or break the case for 50bps.• AU GDP. Weak growth in Q2, but the level of activity remains high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks today on “the costs of high inflation”. A mixed performance across markets with some of the moves from the previous day extending while others, particularly in FX, partially unwound. European and US...

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04 Sep 2024

Australia GDP: growth vs levels

The dated Q2 Australian GDP confirmed what we should have already known. The growth pulse is subdued with higher interest rates and cost of living squeeze working to constrain consumer spending, construction, and broader business investment. The Australian economy expanded by just 0.2% in Q2, lowering the annual run-rate to a meagre 1%pa (chart 1). Outside of COVID this is the slowest annual pace since the early-1990’s recession with household consumption particularly weak despite the ongoing drawdown of COVID-era ‘excess savings’ (chart 2). Indeed, slicing and dicing the data further shows that growth across the private sector has stalled with...

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03 Sep 2024

Risk aversion returns

• Risk off. Growth worries have weighed on cyclical assets. US equities fell, as did base metal prices. Bond yields declined. USD & JPY stronger.• AUD weaker. Backdrop has exerted downward pressure on the AUD. There could be more to come if the US jobs data generates USD support.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released today. Another weak quarter of growth likely. But level of demand is still high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. It has been a negative start to September with a bout of risk aversion rippling through markets overnight as the US returned from its long weekend. Some...

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03 Sep 2024

Investors Batten the Hatches Ahead of a Stormy September

The dollar is blowing into September with a full head of steam as traders brace for what could prove to be this year’s most pivotal economic data release: Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report. Two-year Treasury yields are edging higher, stock market futures are softening, and the greenback is climbing against most of its major counterparts, with rallies in the euro and pound showing clear signs of exhaustion. Today’s update from the Institute for Supply Management could move markets. The Institute’s manufacturing purchasing manager index is expected to show the factory sector remaining firmly in contractionary territory, with new orders continuing...

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02 Sep 2024

Holding steady

• US holiday. Quiet start to the week with the US on holiday. European yields ticked up, while in FX the AUD has been a relative outperformer.• Iron ore. Sluggish China PMI data has weighed on iron ore. But limited AUD spillover, inline with the low correlation with prices over recent years.• US data. Release calendar heats up with US ISM out tonight. Various jobs metrics due the next few days. Positive data could give the USD a boost. With US markets closed for the Labour Day holiday swings across the major asset classes have been minimal at the start...

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