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EUR

04 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens Amid ‘Trump Trade’ Pullback

The greenback is down against all of its major rivals this morning after investors spent the weekend walking back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. Final polls released yesterday showed the race headed toward a photo finish, with NBC News deadlocked at 49 percent-and-49 percent nationally, ABC News/Ipsos giving Kamala Harris a 49 percent-to-46 percent national edge, New York Times/Siena putting the vice president ahead in five of seven swing states, and the Des Moines Register suggesting that she could win in Iowa – a state long considered a lock for Trump. Major elements of the “Trump...

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03 Nov 2024

US election odds swing again

• Market vol. US jobs data & election polls whipsawed markets. USD lost ground this morning (AUD higher) after election polls/odds narrowed.• US election. Voting progressively closes over Wednesday morning AEDT. Market reaction to the result could be binary. Volatility anticipated.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues) with the US Fed expected to cut rates (Fri AEDT). But this should be secondary to the US election. The sticker shock of a weaker than predicted US non-farm payrolls print and US election polls released over the weekend whipsawed markets on Friday night and this morning. On net, US equities increased (S&P500 +0.4%)...

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01 Nov 2024

Stress Climbs in Currency Markets

The dollar is holding steady and measures of expected currency volatility are ratcheting higher as global investors go to ground ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls report and next week’s presidential election. Ten-year Treasury yields are edging closer to the 4.30-percent threshold after softening briefly earlier in the week, North American equity markets are setting up for a defensive move after a series of mixed earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft and Meta, and oil prices are pushing higher on reports of a potential Iranian escalation in its ongoing tit-for-tat cycle with Israel. Forecasts for job creation in this...

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31 Oct 2024

Dollar Steamrolls Toward Monthly Gain as Data Confirms Underlying Strength

The dollar is losing momentum amid month-end cross-currents, but looks set to end October with its biggest gain in two years as growth data continues to surprise to the upside and anticipation rises ahead of next week’s election. Numbers released yesterday showed the economy gaining steam. According to ADP’s measure, private sector employment jumped by 233,000 jobs in October, accelerating from 143,000 in September, and nearly doubling consensus forecasts. Gross domestic product climbed at a 2.8-percent annualised rate in the third quarter, slightly slowing from the second quarter’s 3-percent pace, but final private sales to domestic purchasers – an arguably-cleaner...

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30 Oct 2024

Swings & roundabouts

• Vol. continues. Intra-session market swings. US/European equities ended the day lower. AUD & NZD nudged up. US data & election on the horizon.• Rates repricing. Positive EZ GDP & higher regional inflation saw ECB rate cut bets pared back. US GDP also solid. Bond yields rose, with EUR ticking up.• AU CPI. Headline inflation back in RBA’s band. This is because of government measures. Core CPI still above. RBA expected to hold next week. Intra-session volatility continued across markets yesterday as participants reacted to the incoming macro news flow. European and US equities ended the session lower (EuroStoxx50 -1.3%,...

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