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Market Briefing: Dollar Rally Pauses as Global Policy Landscape Shifts

Equity markets are poised for a strong open and the greenback is retreating ahead of data that could reinforce the “peak inflation” narrative and influence longer-term monetary policy expectations. The trade-weighted dollar is slipping from multi-decade highs and a broad-based improvement in risk appetite is visible across most major asset classes, suggesting that traders and investors are cutting short positions in preparation for tomorrow’s August consumer inflation report. The euro is powering higher, extending its biggest rally in at least six months as interest rate differentials narrow. The spread between US and German yields narrowed to a one-month low over...

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Market Briefing: Currency Markets Reverse Direction on Narrowing Yield Gaps

The dollar is tumbling as currency traders unwind wagers on ever-widening gaps between the world’s major central banks. With the Bank of Japan inching closer to a shift in policy direction, the European Central Bank making hawkish noises, and an energy price cap reducing pressure on the Bank of England, yield differentials are moving in a more synchronized fashion than in recent months – and evidence of a slowing in the Chinese economy is helping reduce the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. The pound is recovering after new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to hold average household energy bills at no...

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Market Wire: Euro Flatlines After ECB Hikes as Expected

The European Central Bank lifted all three of its benchmark rates by 75 basis points this morning, matching market expectations as it battles against rising inflation pressures. The statement announcing the decision said, “Based on its current assessment, over the next several meetings the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations,” and “future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach”. Policymakers said “inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above target for an extended...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Rally Pauses as Global Policy Landscape Shifts

The dollar is pausing for breath after stampeding through global financial markets for more than a week. The euro, pound, and yen are exhibiting signs of stability ahead of a central bank decision in Europe, fiscal intervention in the UK, and a senior-level policy meeting in Japan. The European Central Bank is expected to raise all three of its benchmark rates by 75 basis points, tightening policy aggressively as it moves to keep inflation expectations under control. The euro could remain weak as investors focus on painful price pressures and looming recessionary threats, with the central bank’s updated projections for...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Winning Reverse Beauty Contest

The dollar is continuing its untrammelled rise this morning, crushing its developed- and emerging-market peers alike as the US reprises its role as a rock in a sea of economic troubles. As Europe faces an energy shock, China slows, and falling commodity prices weigh on emerging market growth prospects, the American economy – with its voracious consumers, incredibly profitable corporate sector, and aggressively hawkish central bank – is drawing financial flows from the rest of the world, further widening performance gaps. The yen is trading near new post-1998 lows, ignoring fresh intervention warnings from the government. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu...

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