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EUR

06 Jan 2023

Dollar rises as markets brace for strong jobs number

The dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders buy insurance against another strong jobs report. Economists think US non-farm payrolls, out at 8:30, will rise by 200,000 in December, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7 percent. The “whisper number” on Wall Street appears closely aligned, with most market participants prepared for a print between 150,000 and 250,000 that keeps the Federal Reserve on a tightening trajectory – suggesting that a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news dynamic could hit the greenback in the minutes after the release. The Canadian dollar remains on a defensive footing even as Statistics Canada...

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05 Jan 2023

Conflicting narratives keep dollar rangebound

The trade-weighted dollar flatlined overnight as optimism surrounding China’s reopening process helped offset cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The pound and euro are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as falling inflation prints put pressure on yields, and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the day – but has gained on a year-to-date basis along with other commodity-linked currencies. Currency markets shrugged yesterday when a record of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting was released, showing that officials thought “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation would be needed before rate hikes could pause. Central bankers warned “an unwarranted easing...

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04 Jan 2023

Market Briefing: Dollar fades as rebalancing flows gain momentum

Currency market volumes are rebounding as participants return to their desks and position for a reversal of the US exceptionalism trade that dominated throughout 2022. The dollar is weaker against every other major this morning, and yields are softer across the front end of the curve – even as traders brace for relatively-hawkish meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve later in the day. The Aussie is a clear outperformer after Chinese authorities began discussing an end to an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports. Unconfirmed reports circulated by Bloomberg and Reuters this morning suggest the National Development and Reform Commission...

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03 Jan 2023

Market Briefing: Risk appetites – and the dollar – jump into a new year

Happy new year, and may all our market troubles last as long as our resolutions. Investors are in a relatively ebullient mood to kick off 2023, with most major equity indices pointing to a stronger open, while bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic slip. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are eking out small gains, but the greenback is almost a full percentage point higher on a year-to-date basis as traders trim excessive bets on the euro. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker after pushing through the 130 mark against the dollar in yesterday’s thin trading conditions. Investors...

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16 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Festive Cheer Drains Out of Markets As Central Banks Remain Hawkish Into Year End

After a bruising session yesterday, risk-sensitive currencies are setting up for another day of losses. The greenback is firmer, yields are higher, and commodity prices are weaker after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish-than-expected stance on Wednesday’s meeting, Europe’s central banks followed suit with their own 50-basis point hikes, and data pointed to a slowdown in American consumer spending. November retail sales tumbled 0.6 percent from the prior month, falling more than expected as price growth slowed and spending patterns shifted. So-called “control group” sales, which exclude building materials, vehicle parts and gas station sales, dropped 0.2 percent, while...

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