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17 May 2023

US debt ceiling optimism

• US debt ceiling. Positive rhetoric from both sides supported sentiment. US equities & bond yields rose. USD index firmer, with AUD ~$0.6660.• Fed speak on the radar. In addition to the debt ceiling, US Fed speakers will be in focus the rest of the week. Markets pricing ~3 rate cuts by January.• Labour market data. April Australian labour report due today. Labour market is a lagging indicator. Data for April reflects the state of play ~6-months ago. A more positive tone to markets overnight with comments on both sides of the US political spectrum easing fears of a potential...

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16 May 2023

Trading ranges shrink ahead of action-packed day

Currency markets are seeing subdued price action this morning as participants stay sidelined in a catalyst-poor environment. Both the euro and pound are holding modest gains and the dollar is slightly weaker, with three-month implied volatility levels trading near the lowest levels in a year as monetary policy expectations crystallize and movement in the fixed income space slows to a crawl. Commodity-linked and Antipodean currencies are weaker after traders responded to softer-than-expected Chinese economic activity data by marking down demand forecasts. Last night’s official data showed industrial output in the world’s second largest economy expanding 5.6 percent in April from a year...

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15 May 2023

Dollar retreats on hopes for debt ceiling deal

A more risk-supportive tone is evident across currency markets this morning after Treasury Secretary Yellen said debt ceiling negotiations were making progress. Speaking on the sidelines of the G7 finance minister meeting in Japan, she said “I’m hopeful. I think the negotiations are very active. I’m told they have found some areas of agreement”. Treasury yields and equity futures are up, and most major currencies are advancing against the dollar. The cadence of economic events will slow this week, with a string of central bank speakers competing with second-tier data releases in Europe and Asia for market attention.  Today’s Federal Reserve...

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14 May 2023

Higher inflation expectations are a worry for the US Fed

• US inflation worries. Jump in US inflation expectations should catch the US Fed’s eye. Market pricing for multiple Fed rate cuts looks misplaced.• USD rebound. Higher yields supported the USD. US retail sales & Fed speakers in focus this week. Reduction in Fed rate cut pricing should be USD positive.• AUD slips back. The AUD has extended its slide. Local and offshore data should generate AUD vol. On net, we think the AUD can fall back further. Markets nervousness continued into the end of last week, with growth concerns, higher US inflation expectations, and US debt ceiling worries weighing...

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12 May 2023

Dollar maintains upward momentum into weekend on fading pivot expectations

Two- and ten-year Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is outperforming its major rivals as investors (seemingly) begin to buy into the Federal Reserve’s much-repeated “higher for longer” narrative. S&P and Nasdaq futures are setting up for a modest gain at the open, and commodity prices are down, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark knocking on the $70 threshold once again. In prepared comments released early this morning, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said the central bank might be forced to raise rates further as it struggles to slow growth and bring inflation down. Speaking to a banking conference in Germany,...

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