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EUR

24 May 2023

Euro Snapshot

Exhibit 1 Speculators are heavily long euro. Net Long (+) or Short (-) Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars Exhibit 2 Europe’s terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed. Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020 Exhibit 3 Economic surprise indices are diverging to a dangerous degree. Bloomberg Economic Surprise Indices Exhibit 4 China’s not riding to the rescue. Annual change in M2 money supply, % Exhibit 5 Inflation is rolling over. All Items, Annual Change, %, SA Exhibit 6 Policy forecasts are coming down. Implied change in policy rate, % Exhibit...

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23 May 2023

US debt ceiling: deal or no deal?

• US debt ceiling. Lack of progress has weighed on risk sentiment. US equities fell overnight and the USD added to its recent gains.• Two-speed economy. Manufacturing PMIs in ‘contractionary’ territory, while services remain robust. The former is a negative for commodity demand & the AUD.• RBNZ in focus. Another RBNZ hike expected today. The debate is around how big it could be (25bps or 50bps)? AUD/NZD is sub 1.06. US debt ceiling negotiations continue to hog the headlines and the lack of progress has weighed on risk sentiment. Equity markets lost ground with the US S&P500 falling by 1.1%....

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23 May 2023

Markets count down to debt ceiling deal

Markets are stuck in a state of suspended animation after President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy emerged from last night’s talks without a deal to raise the US debt ceiling. According to Biden, the two leaders agreed that a “default is off the table,” and McCarthy said “The tone tonight was better than any other time we have had discussions”. McCarthy called the talks “productive” but said “we don’t have an agreement yet,” with both noting that differences over tax changes were lengthening the standoff. An earlier statement from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “we estimate that it is highly likely...

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22 May 2023

US debt ceiling still in focus

• US debt ceiling. Talks are set to restart today. A deal is needed to be agreed quickly given the ‘x-date’ is fast approaching.• Fed pricing. Markets pricing in a chance of a June Fed hike, but are still looking for ~2-3 cuts by January. An unwind of these bets could be USD positive.• AUD holding. Limited local data flow. Global events will drive the AUD near-term. AUD/NZD sub 1.06. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting is in focus. It has been a quiet start to the new week with limited moves across markets as participants await the latest round of US debt...

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22 May 2023

Dancing on the US debt ceiling

US debt ceiling shenanigans, a repeated source of market volatility over the past decade or so, are rearing their head once again. After tentative progress was made last week negotiations look to have reached an impasse. Reportedly, the Republicans are continuing to push for sizeable reductions in government spending, particularly in areas such as healthcare, education, and housing, while also maintaining high spending on defense and the Trump-era corporate tax cuts. The two sides have agreed to resume talks with President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy set to meet on Monday, but things clearly remain fluid. The clock is ticking...

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