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EUR

26 Jun 2023

Veni, Vidi, Retreat-y

This weekend’s baffling march on Moscow by the Wagner Group of mercenaries ended without any appreciable impact on global energy prices or broader financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are essentially unchanged, equity futures look incrementally softer, and the VIX “fear index” is holding near Friday’s post-pandemic lows. The yen is modestly stronger after Japanese officials stepped up currency jawboning efforts last night, with Masato Kanda, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, warning that exchange rate moves had become “one-sided” and that he wouldn’t “rule out any options” in dealing with it – language that has...

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26 Jun 2023

JPY: Asymmetric risks building

It has been one-way traffic for the JPY over recent weeks. The JPY has depreciated rather sharply against a range of other currencies, including the USD, AUD, and SGD since the Bank of Japan disappointed markets by maintaining its ultra-accommodative stance in late-April. Over the same period interest rate expectations for other major central banks like the RBA, Bank of England, and US Fed have risen (to differing degrees) due to ongoing inflation pressures, while market sentiment has also generally been positive. Given where USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, SGD/JPY, and the JPY more broadly are now trading, we think the distribution of...

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25 Jun 2023

Recession risks rattle markets

• Global worries. PMI data underwhelmed reinforcing recession concerns. Equities & bond yields fell, while the USD has strengthened.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has weighed on the cyclical AUD. Locally, the CPI indicator (Weds) & retail sales (Thurs) can influence RBA rate hike expectations.• Central bankers. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, & BoJ Governor Ueda speak on Wednesday. Risks markets remained under pressure at the end of last week as global recession concerns rattled nerves. Weekend geopolitical developments in Russia is another thing to add to the ‘worry wall’. Economically, the June business PMIs for the...

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23 Jun 2023

Risk appetite falls on accumulating evidence of global economic slowdown

The dollar is staging a broad-based recovery this morning after a raft of purchasing manager surveys showed activity slowing sharply across a range of global economies. Data published by S&P this morning provided evidence of decelerating growth in Australia, Japan, the UK and the euro area, with the all-important services sector joining manufacturing in showing signs of strain in every major country. In the euro area, the headline purchasing manager index dropped to 50.3 in June from 52.5 in the prior month, narrowly avoiding contraction and hitting a five-month low as the strike-plagued French economy deteriorated and the German factory sector remained depressed. European yields fell...

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22 Jun 2023

Hawks in the BoE nest

• Hawkish surprise. BoE delivered a 50bp hike. At 5% the BoE bank rate is at its highest since early-2008. High inflation points to more hikes to come.• Markets thinking ahead. UK long-end bond yields & GBP dipped as the negative economic impacts of higher rates start to become more of a focus.• Firmer USD. US yields & the USD rose. AUD slipped back further. Weaker global growth is a negative backdrop for risk sentiment & the AUD. Central banks remain laser focused on breaking the back of high/sticky inflation, with growth considerations still down the pecking order. Overnight, the...

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