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EUR

21 Aug 2023

Markets mark time into Jackson Hole

Foreign exchange market flows are ebbing this morning, reflecting typical late-August trading dynamics. The dollar is inching lower, delivering gains in most major-economy currencies, equity futures are pushing higher ahead of the open, and ten-year Treasury yields are holding near post-2007 highs. Last week, markets sold off as long-term rate expectations were ratcheted higher. Yields spiked to multi-decade peaks after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed officials remaining intent on keeping policy tight for a prolonged period of time, and as updated retail sales numbers pointed to resilience in consumer demand. More broadly, the global economy is sucking...

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20 Aug 2023

Pausing for breath

• Calmer markets. US bond yields, the S&P500, & the USD consolidated on Friday, though underlying risk sentiment still looks somewhat fragile.• Global events. European/US PMIs (Weds), week ending speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde, & China developments in focus this week.• AUD consolidating. AUD treading water near its 2023 lows. There are no local events scheduled this week. AUD will be driven by offshore news. After a busy few sessions markets consolidated on Friday with little new news coming through to move the needle or alter the fragile state of risk sentiment. The US S&P500 was...

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18 Aug 2023

Volatility creeps higher with US yields, keeping safe havens bid

Financial markets are facing headwinds this morning from higher interest rates and a slowing Chinese economy. Equity futures are setting up for a lower open, US Treasury yields are inching lower after again challenging multi-decade highs during yesterday’s session, and commodity prices are trading sideways as markets simultaneously downgrade Chinese demand forecasts and raise stimulus expectations. Foreign exchange markets are trading on a mixed footing, with risk-sensitive currencies fighting an increase in implied volatility expectations – partly seasonal, partly rates-driven, and partly China-related – even as domestic yields play catch up with the United States North America Expectations are rising ahead...

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17 Aug 2023

Bond yields & China in focus

• Bond moves. Yields have continued to rise. The US 10-yr is at its highest since late-2007. This has exerted more pressure on equities. USD remains firm.• CNY focus. Trends in China & CNY remain in focus. Policymakers in China appear to be becoming uncomfortable with the CNY weakness.• AU jobs. Labour market data undershot expectations. Unemployment rose in July, extending the AUD weakness. But is the AUD starting to find a base? Developments in bond markets and China remain front of mind. Against a backdrop of light news and economic dataflow bond yields have risen further. Concerns that rates...

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17 Aug 2023

Dollar slips as global yields inch higher

The dollar is retreating from yesterday’s extreme levels as currency markets stage a modest and hesitant recovery against a materially-tighter financial backdrop. Benchmark Treasury yields holding near a 15-year peak on fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, and rates in most major advanced economies are pushing upward in sympathy. North America A record of the Fed’s July policy meeting showed officials remaining relatively hawkish. Some policymakers turned more cautious, pointing out that risks had become “more two-sided,” making it “important that the committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent over-tightening of policy against the cost...

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