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01 Sep 2023

Markets leap higher on weakening payrolls growth

Goldilocks is enjoying her just-right porridge this morning after a US payrolls report pointed to a gradual easing in labour market conditions, supporting expectations for an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. North America The US economy added 187,000 new non-farm jobs last month, marking the third consecutive month of gains below 200,000, and helping bolster bets on an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate jumped off historic lows to 3.8 percent in August, up from 3.5 percent in the previous month’s print (but we note that...

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31 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Mixed markets. The USD clawed back ground against the softer EUR & GBP. AUD/USD held up with AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP rising.• China pulse. Forward components point to a pick up in the manufacturing PMI. Authorities also continue to pull on policy support levers.• US payrolls. US labour market in focus tonight. We think there could be an uneven reaction with a downside surprise likely to generate a larger (negative) jolt on the USD. Markets consolidated overnight with the economic data generally inline with expectations, and with participants having one-eye on tonight’s US labour market report (10:30pm AEST). Equities drifted...

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31 Aug 2023

US exceptionalism trade lifts dollar, supports rate expectations across the curve

Risk appetite remains relatively strong after a series of data releases – including today’s spending and inflation numbers – helped bolster bets on a “soft landing” in the US economy that could convince the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at prevailing levels for an extended period. The major North American equity indices are inching higher, Treasury yields are climbing off three-week lows, and commodity prices are enjoying a brief period of respite, even as the dollar – symbol of American economic outperformance – pushes higher against its major counterparts. North America American consumers spent more than expected last month, defying...

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30 Aug 2023

Softer US data run continues

• Macro divergence. Regional Eurozone inflation positively surprised, while US GDP & ADP employment undershot forecasts. This pushed up the EUR.• AUD volatility. AUD spiked to a ~2-week high overnight before easing back. USD & China trends remain more influential than the local data.• AU inflation. Headline inflation slowed to 4.9%pa. But this was due to volatile items. Higher petrol prices point to a re-acceleration next month. Mixed fortunes across US and European markets overnight, inline with the divergence in the incoming data. European equities slipped back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose (German rates increased ~3bps across the yield...

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29 Aug 2023

Markets Jolted

• Softer US data. US consumer confidence & the JOLTS report came in weaker than expected. This weighed on US bond yields & the USD.• US focus. US labour market trends will remain in the spotlight with ADP employment, jobless claims, & non-farm payrolls due over coming days.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI indicator released today. It is an incomplete series, particularly so early in the quarter. The data may generate intra-day AUD volatility. Downside surprises in the US economic data released overnight has generated a meaningful market reaction with equities higher (S&P500 +1.5%), bond yields lower (US 2yr yield -11bps,...

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