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EUR

24 Oct 2023

Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

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24 Oct 2023

Treasury Bill jawboning triggers tumble

Global interest rate benchmarks and the US dollar are sharply lower after a remarkably-turbulent short-covering rally saw the ten-year Treasury yield fall from above 5 percent to 4.84 percent during yesterday’s session. We hesitate to ascribe price action to investors talking their books, but the move appeared to kick off when Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said he’d unwound his bet against US government bonds, and gained steam on comments from “bond king” Bill Gross, who wrote that he had begun buying short-dated interest-rate futures to harness an expected downturn by year end. Equity futures are setting up for a stronger...

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23 Oct 2023

Bond market volatility

• Bond gyrations. Large swings in US bond yields generated volatility across other asset markets. On net US yields fell & this dragged down the USD.• AU events. Ahead of tomorrow’s Q3 CPI data, new RBA Governor Bullock speaks tonight. Will Governor Bullock maintain the more ‘hawkish’ tone?• Global data. The latest batch of Eurozone, UK & US PMIs are due today. The PMIs will provide an update on the pulse of activity & price pressures. Another bout of bond market volatility cascaded through other asset classes overnight. There was little new news or data to rattle nerves or shift...

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23 Oct 2023

Flashbacks to 2007 haunt markets

Ten-year Treasury yields broke through the 5-percent threshold to a 16-year high earlier this morning, increasing strain on the global financial system and driving renewed demand for the dollar. Major equity indices are sliding ahead of the North American open, oil prices are retreating, copper prices are down sharply, and most major currencies are trading on the defensive relative to the greenback as some investors take out insurance against a re-run of the global financial crisis. Three factors appear to be shaping the move higher: Last week’s comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, in which he appeared to suggest...

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22 Oct 2023

Macro trends vs geopolitical risks

• Negative vibes. Equities lost more ground on Friday. Bond yields also dipped, with oil, gold, & the USD consolidating. Middle East developments remain in focus.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due Wednesday. Quarterly growth in core inflation looks set to step up. A lift could bolster expectations about another RBA rate hike.• Event radar. In addition to AU CPI, RBA Gov. Bullock speaks (Tues & Thurs). The BoC & ECB meet, & in the US Q3 GDP & the PCE deflator are due. Markets ended last week on a weaker footing with developments in the Middle East continuing to dampen...

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