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EUR

28 Nov 2023

USD continues to lose its shine

• Fed rhetoric. Comments by the Fed’s Waller were in focus. Waller’s message supported the view that the next Fed move will probably be a rate cut.• Market repricing. The pull-back in US bond yields & the USD extended. EUR, NZD & AUD edged up to multi-month highs. USD/JPY lost some ground.• Trans-Tasman Events. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator due today. A slowdown in annual inflation is predicted. RBNZ expected to keep rates steady. The pull-back in bond yields and the USD extended overnight as expectations that the US Fed’s tightening cycle has ended were reinforced by policymaker comments. The...

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28 Nov 2023

Dollar steadies amid softer flows

The dollar is trading just above a three-month low and Treasury yields are creeping higher after yesterday’s drop. Benchmark ten-year rates tumbled more than 10 basis points during the session after the government auctioned $109 billion in short-term notes without triggering any turmoil, adding to a weaker-than-forecast new home sales number in convincing investors that markets and the economy are beginning to normalize after a prolonged sequence of unusual developments. The euro is inching lower in early trade, failing to gain traction after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel tried pushing back against rate cut expectations. “It would be premature to lower...

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27 Nov 2023

Weaker USD supporting the AUD

• Softer tone. Equities lost some ground & bond yields dipped back overnight. Oil still on the backfoot & the USD remains under pressure.• AUD upswing. AUD’s positive run continued. AUD above ~$0.66 for the first time since early-August. But following its rapid rise it may face some local hurdles.• Local data. AU retail sales due today & monthly CPI released tomorrow. Did cash conscious households hold back their spending for the ‘Black Friday’ sales? It has been a rather subdued start to the week. As our chart shows, the VIX Index (the volatility measure for the S&P500) is at...

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27 Nov 2023

Weekly Chartbook

Canadian consumers aren’t spending. US inflation pressures are subsiding. The renminbi is stabilizing. The euro area economy is showing signs of bottoming. Technicals support further gains.

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27 Nov 2023

Blue Monday follows Black Friday

Markets are kicking off the week on a more cautious footing after Chinese data disappointed relative to expectations, pointing to a stronger disinflationary impulse from the world’s second-largest economy. Industrial profits increased just 2.7 percent from a year ago in October, according to numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics, down from September’s 11.9 percent and August’s 17.2 percent as global demand weakens and a domestic recovery runs out of momentum. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels in a week, equity futures are retreating, and the dollar is stabilizing as demand for commodity-linked units and emerging-market...

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