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Market Briefing: Kumbaya-that-dare-not-speak-its-name lifts financial markets

Signs of a thaw in US-China relations and more evidence of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s messaging on rates are giving currency markets an opportunity to trade against the US dollar this morning. Equity futures are setting up for a strong open, yields are down, and commodities are gaining across the board. The greenback is down against most of its major counterparts after US president Joe Biden and Chinese general secretary Xi Jinping agreed to resume cooperation on a number of fronts, helping to reduce pressure on the yuan and weaken safe haven demand for the dollar. After...

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Market Briefing: Dollar inches upward after a bruising week

Investors betting on policy “pivots” from the US Federal Reserve and the Chinese government are trimming their bets this morning, helping the dollar recover some ground against its major-currency rivals. Treasury yields are up slightly, and oil prices are weakening as last week’s ebullience fades in the face of a still-subdued economic outlook. The dollar suffered its biggest decline since the global financial crisis last week after the latest consumer price index report showed inflation pressures subsiding more quickly than expected. Yields on two- and 10-year Treasury instruments plunged as investors lowered terminal rate forecasts, expecting the Fed to respond...

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Market Briefing: Currency traders brace for October inflation report

Markets are generally flat ahead of this morning’s inflation data. Investors are expecting to see more evidence of an easing in pressures, but are also prepared to sell assets if prices rise by more than anticipated. The headline consumer price index is expected to rise 0.6 percent month-over-month in October, up 7.9 percent year-over-year. With food and energy excluded, the core measure is seen rising 0.5 percent and 6.5 percent. The pace of price changes has decelerated in recent months, but inflation remains near four-decade highs, well above the Federal Reserve’s target range. Despite a small recovery this morning, the...

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Market Briefing: Major currencies stabilize ahead of October inflation number

Price action in the currency markets looks relatively subdued this morning, with lingering midterm election uncertainties and tomorrow’s critical October inflation report acting to restrain directional position-taking. The dollar is trading slightly higher, Treasuries, gilts, and bunds are moving sideways, and both the euro and pound are stuck in incredibly-tight trading ranges. Results are still coming in, but it is already clear that no “red wave” materialized in yesterday’s elections. The Republican Party is likely to win the House by a slim margin, enabling it to stymie large-scale legislative changes, block efforts to lift the debt ceiling, and launch investigations...

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Market Briefing: Currencies turn more buoyant in the calm after the storm

Financial markets are adding risk after last week’s unusually-eventful week for macroeconomic developments. Equity futures are climbing, bond yields are holding steady, and the dollar is losing altitude as expectations for Federal Reserve policy begin to stabilize in response to Chair Jerome Powell’s “slower-but-higher” message at Wednesday’s meeting, and after Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment data. After Jerome Powell warned markets not to expect a pause in the months to come, investors expect the Federal Reserve to deliver another half-percentage-point hike in December, with the upper end of the Fed Funds target range climbing to 5.25 percent by mid-2023. The offshore Chinese...

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