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China might defy its skeptics once again.

We think a bullish scenario could unfold if authorities unveil a larger and more broad-based stimulus package to prop up the fading economic expansion. In our assessment, a more definitive re-acceleration in China’s growth pulse, particularly across the domestically-oriented services sector, could encourage a recovery in capital inflows as the economy outperforms on a relative basis. Alternatively, a more shallow global slowdown, coupled with a faster and less disruptive deceleration in inflation – which might enable developed-economy central banks to shift away from restrictive policy stances sooner – could be a negative for the US dollar, helping support risk assets and Asian currencies including the yuan.

China activity indicators, annual % change

Positive Jobs Reports Bolster Risk Appetite
US jobs report in focus
Markets Stabilise as Policy Risks Recede
No new tariff news is good news
Will the rebound in sentiment last?
Regularly-Scheduled Programming Resumes

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