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China might defy its skeptics once again.

We think a bullish scenario could unfold if authorities unveil a larger and more broad-based stimulus package to prop up the fading economic expansion. In our assessment, a more definitive re-acceleration in China’s growth pulse, particularly across the domestically-oriented services sector, could encourage a recovery in capital inflows as the economy outperforms on a relative basis. Alternatively, a more shallow global slowdown, coupled with a faster and less disruptive deceleration in inflation – which might enable developed-economy central banks to shift away from restrictive policy stances sooner – could be a negative for the US dollar, helping support risk assets and Asian currencies including the yuan.

China activity indicators, annual % change

Yields Push Higher as Debt Worries Intensify
Dollar Retreats As Market Momentum Slows
Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain
‘Mar A Lago Accord’ Fears Unnerve Dollar Bulls
Economic Scepticism and Soft Inflation Weigh on Dollar
US-China Trade Ceasefire Boosts Global Asset Prices

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