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Market Briefing: Markets prepare to close out the year with a bang

The dollar is softer, Treasury yields are slumping, and implied volatility levels are creeping higher as an action-packed week begins in financial markets. Equity futures are pointing to a slightly stronger open after Friday’s selloff, and risk-sensitive currencies are edging upward. The pound is slightly stronger after the Office for National Statistics said the economy grew by 0.5 percent in October after shrinking 0.6 percent in September. This beat consensus forecasts for a 0.4-percent expansion, and helped show that a surge in the “moron risk premium” (to borrow Dario Perkin’s term) during the Truss government’s brief time in power has...

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Market Briefing: Trading ranges narrow as inflation fears ebb

Currency markets are becalmed, with bond yields and interest differentials trading within remarkably-tight ranges as central bank policy trajectories become – seemingly – more predictable. Yields in the major economies moved less than two basis points over the course of yesterday’s session, marking a big departure from the dramatic moves seen earlier in the year. The euro is almost-imperceptibly higher after Eurostat said the economy expanded slightly more than previously estimated in the third quarter.Gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent between July and September, beating the 0.2 percent initial estimate as fixed capital investment and household consumption helped offset an...

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Market Briefing: Markets stay defensive after hotter-than-expected services data

The Institute for Supply Management said yesterday that its service sector index climbed in November from the month before, providing more evidence of resilience in the American economy. The measure ticked up to 56.5 from October’s 54.4, remaining well above 50, the threshold between expansion and contraction. Investors reacted badly, boosting bets on more hikes from the Federal Reserve, buying the dollar, and selling risk-sensitive currencies en masse. Markets look rudderless this morning, with the greenback holding ground as the other majors turn in a mixed performance. Yields are stable after yesterday’s jump, and equity futures are pointing to a...

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Market Briefing: Year-end rebalancing flows weigh on dollar into quiet data week

The dollar continues to lose altitude as market participants gradually rebalance portfolios ahead of a new calendar year. With US economic outperformance fading, the Federal Reserve expected to slow and then pause its tightening cycle, energy prices falling, and geopolitical shocks fading, many investors have become less willing to crowd into long-greenback positions, and demand for alternatives is growing. Oil prices are steady even after the Group of Seven industrialized democracies agreed to cap shipments of Russian crude at $60 a barrel. Under the plan, Western companies will be barred from insuring, financing, or shipping Russian oil unless it is...

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Market Briefing: Greenback continues to tumble ahead of jobs report

The dollar continued its descent overnight as traders bet on a weaker jobs report and a slower pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The trade-weighted greenback is down almost 1.5 percent this week, floating near a four-month low as American yields come under pressure and interest rate differentials shrink in favour of other major currencies. The benchmark ten-year US treasury yield is holding near 1.51 percent, down sharply after Jerome Powell’s less-hawkish-than-expected speech on Wednesday. Yesterday’s data showed American consumer spending hitting new heights, even as inflation pressures cooled. Supported by robust income gains and a falling savings...

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