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CNY

22 Mar 2023

Fed nearing the end

• Another Fed hike. Inflation trumps banking concerns with the Fed delivering another 25bp rate hike. Though its forward guidance was watered down.• Mixed reaction. Volatility around the announcements, but in the end US equities and bond yields fell with the more challenging outlook hitting home.• AUD underperforms. AUD/USD was on net little changed, but the AUD underperformed on the crosses as global growth risks intensify. The US Fed announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference was the focus overnight, and as is usually the case there was some intra-day volatility across different markets as participants digested the range of comments...

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19 Mar 2023

Will the US Fed hike rates again?

• Market turbulence. Banking developments continue to drive markets. Will the UBS/Credit Suisse news act as a circuit breaker?• Fed in focus. The US Fed meets later this week. Despite the banking issues, high inflation still points to the Fed hiking by another 25bps, in our view.• AUD volatility. AUD has edged higher recently. Another Fed rate hike and a relatively ‘hawkish’ message could see the USD bounce back. Developments in the global banking system continue to drive markets. It has been a tumultuous week, with fears of bank contagion weighing on risk appetite once again on Friday. More regional...

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14 Mar 2023

Past the worst?

• Risk sentiment improves. Equites and bond yields bounced back overnight, but the moves in FX have been more contained.• US inflation. Core inflation remains stubbornly high. Services prices remain the key driver. This points to further Fed rate hikes and a USD rebound.• AUD data flow. China data is released today. Tomorrow, the Australian labour force report is due. Positive data may give the AUD a short-term boost. After a few turbulent days the tone across markets was more positive overnight, though reports late in the session that a Russian fighter jet collided with a US drone did see...

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14 Mar 2023

Hope Springs

Markets are staging a cautious recovery after a three-day bout of selling drove equity indices into the red and triggered some of the biggest daily interest rate declines on record. US regional bank stocks appear destined for a more constructive open, with yesterday’s indiscriminate selling giving way to a more nuanced pickup in well-capitalized names. Treasury yields are climbing off the floor, and the dollar is rising against most its major counterparts. But damage has been done. Rate expectations have been reset lower across the global economy, financial conditions have tightened sharply, and the episode has likely inflicted a psychological...

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