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Market Briefing: Currencies Rangebound As Liquidity Ebbs

Currency traders are all nestled in their spreads, with visions of sweet incomes dancing in their heads. Equities and risk-sensitive currencies are inching higher, the dollar is trading on a mixed basis against its major rivals, and Treasury yields are slightly weaker across the curve. Japan’s yen is holding onto gains achieved on Monday when the central bank shocked markets by opting to relax its yield-suppression efforts. Even if the Bank of Japan’s policy adjustment was not designed to tighten financial conditions, the effect has been just that: two-year government bond yields are above zero for the first time since...

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Market Briefing: Fright Before Christmas Stirs Creatures in FX Markets

Santa Claus might not come this year. The jolly old elf—known for putting gifts in the stockings of good little boys and girls across the financial markets each December—was shot down over Tokyo last night by a central banker wielding a monetary policy-guided surface-to-air missile. His condition is unknown at this time. In a surprise decision, the Bank of Japan increased the upper limit for its ten-year government bond target from 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, almost doubling effective interest rates in one of the world’s most important funding currencies. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the move was aimed at reducing...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Retreats After Messi Weekend

With traders returning to their terminals after an exceptionally unpredictable and entertaining World Cup, a final round of year-end rebalancing is driving most major currencies up against the dollar. Treasury yields are flat, commodity prices are firmer, and equity futures are pointing to incremental gains at the open. Japan’s yen is stabilizing after an unusually-volatile weekend trading session. On Saturday, the Kyodo news agency, citing government sources, said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was planning to work with the next Bank of Japan Governor on adding “flexibility” to the country’s inflation target – a step that could pave the way for...

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Market Briefing: Optimistic markets prepare for Fed decision

Tis’ the season to be jolly. Traders are in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s data showed consumer prices rising in November at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. Although equity markets have largely retraced their steps, ten-year Treasury yields are holding below the 3.5-percent threshold, the dollar is weaker, and risk appetite looks robust across the currency markets. It might seem like investors are decking the halls with boughs of folly, but there are good reasons to think inflation is stabilizing at lower levels. Cheaper energy prices are gradually reducing upward pressure on headline indices, and seem unlikely to...

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Market Briefing: Currency markets go quiet ahead of critical inflation data

Trading activity is muted across the foreign exchange markets this morning as participants await the latest inflation numbers and prepare for tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. The dollar and Treasury yields are slightly weaker, while commodity-complex currencies are inching higher. The pound is holding its ground and the implied likelihood of a half-percentage-point hike at Thursday’s Bank of England meeting is effectively unchanged after the latest numbers showed labour markets remaining tight in the face of a broader economic slowdown. According to the Office for National Statistics, a better-than-forecast 107,000 jobs were created in November, while the labour force survey showed...

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