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CNY

17 Apr 2023

China data in focus

• USD firmer. A further rebound in US bond yields on the back of stronger US data and comments by a Fed official has supported the USD.• China focus. China data, which includes Q1 GDP, released today. Growth should mechanically lift following the end of COVID-zero. But are expectations too high?• AUD range trading. AUD held up in the face of a firmer USD overnight. The China data could generate some AUD volatility today. The rebound in the USD Index has continued, with the USD stronger against the other major currencies over the past 24hrs. EUR has dipped back towards...

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16 Apr 2023

Will the USD recovery continue?

• USD rebound. The lift in US inflation expectations and hawkish Fed comments boosted US interest rate pricing and supported the USD.• AUD falls back. The bounce back in the USD has weighed on the AUD. The China data batch is the main AUD event this week.• AUD/NZD edging higher. NZ CPI inflation released later this week. A result close to consensus should reinforce thinking the RBNZ has reached a rate peak. The USD bounced back on Friday, with Thursday’s losses unwound. US economic data and ‘hawkish’ comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted US interest rate expectations and...

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03 Apr 2023

The AUD’s energy price boost

• Oil spike. OPEC+ production cuts has seen oil prices lift. Oil sensitive currencies like the AUD, CAD, and NOK have outperformed.• USD lower. A weak US ISM manufacturing survey reinforced recession worries. US bond yields reversed course and this weighed on the USD.• AUD lift off. The terms of trade boost from higher energy prices has supported the AUD. RBA meets today. It is a close call, but we think the RBA will pause. A somewhat volatile start to the week for financial markets as investors digested the surprise weekend news that OPEC+ was cutting back oil production and...

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02 Apr 2023

Will the OPEC+ cuts reignite inflation worries?

• Positive vibes. Equities ended the week on a positive footing. Lower headline inflation in Europe and the US supported risk appetite. But core inflation, the focus for policymakers, remains high.• OPEC+ cuts. Weekend news the OPEC+ group is cutting production could reignite inflation concerns, and dampen risk sentiment early in the week.• AUD RBA focus. Will the RBA pause at tomorrow’s meeting? On net we think it will, but it is likely to be a closer call than many now think. Risk assets had another relatively positive session on Friday, with another day of no new negative news on...

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30 Mar 2023

Will the China PMIs surprise?

• Calm markets. Perceived financial stability risks continue to fade. Equities higher, while the USD has lost some ground.• Sticky German inflation. European yields and EUR rise as German inflation falls back less than expected. Eurozone inflation is released tonight.• AUD mixed. AUD up a little against the USD, but remains under pressure against EUR, GBP, and NZD. China PMIs due during todays Asian trade. Another night of relatively calm market conditions, as perceived financial stability risks continue to fade. Equities were higher across Europe and the US. The major indices rose by another 0.5-1.3%, though ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from several...

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