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CNY

Global growth concerns

• Growth worries. Weaker than expected China PMIs added to global growth concerns. This has dampened risk sentiment. AUD touched a new ~6-month low.• AU CPI. Inflation indicator re-accelerated more than expected. Data bolsters the case for another RBA hike. Tomorrow’s minimum/award wage decision is important.• USD firm. The USD remains near its recent highs. US ISM manufacturing survey released tonight, with non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Another negative night for risk sentiment with more signs the world economic downturn is gathering pace coming through. Across equities, the EuroStoxx50 fell 1.7% and the US S&P500 was down 0.6%. This followed...

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Dollar Strengthens into Month End

As the last trading day of the month begins, it’s clear that equity investors aren’t following the “sell in May and go away” dictum, but others are growing more cautious on an increasingly-bifurcated worldwide growth outlook. US Treasury yields – standing in for US growth expectations – continue to climb, while oil prices – a proxy for global demand – are broadly lower, with both key benchmarks down almost 3-percent overnight and off nearly 10 percent for the month. The trade-weighted dollar looks set to end the month having gained nearly 2.75 percent, with higher US yields and increasing scepticism on...

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Will the China PMIs underwhelm?

• Shaky sentiment. US debt ceiling yet to be fully put to bed. US & European confidence weakened, a sign the global downturn is gathering pace.• Currency concerns. JPY weakness has seen officials fire a shot across the bow of markets. A lower currency makes the inflation fight harder.• AUD events. Today, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, the monthly CPI indicator is released, and the China PMIs are due. Some negative vibes across markets as the US and UK returned to work after their long weekend. The US debt ceiling has yet to be fully put to bed. While the in-principle...

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Subdued holiday markets

• Holiday markets. Limited moves with the US, UK, & parts of Europe on holiday. In-principle agreement to raise US debt ceiling to be voted on over coming days.• Global data pulse. Global data flow picks up later this week. China PMIs (Weds), Eurozone CPI (Thurs) & US labour market report (Fri) in focus.• AUD consolidating. Global forces should act as a AUD headwind, offsetting support expected to be generated by upcoming local events. A quiet 24hrs across global markets with the US, UK, and some European countries on holiday, and no major economic data released. Across the markets that...

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Debt ceiling deal (nearly) done

• US debt ceiling. An agreement to raise the ceiling looks to have been reached. It must now be voted on by both chambers of Congress.• Back to fundamentals. Removing a tail risk should see markets refocus on the policy outlook. US inflation is still too high. Another strong labour market report should be USD supportive.• AUD cross-currents. AUD found some support. Shift in relative interest rate expectations & softer global growth pulse likely to limit the AUD’s rebound. Markets ended last week on more positive footing, with equities rising (the US S&P500 rose 1.3% while the tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed...

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