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14 Sep 2023

AUD: Always darkest before the dawn

The AUD is battered and bruised. A combination of factors such as better-than-anticipated US data and a stronger USD, economic struggles in China and a weaker CNH, a lower JPY, some subpar local economic prints, and shaky risk sentiment on the back of the jump up in bond yields recently pushed the AUD to 2023 lows. While the extent of the USD strength and AUD weakness has been a bit of a surprise, the direction of travel was not. We repeatedly flagged that the AUD was set to go through a rough patch over Q3 as global inflation lingered and...

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14 Sep 2023

ECB: end of the line

• Positive vibes. Risk markets supported by signals last nights ECB rate hike could be the last, more policy easing in China, & positive US retail sales.• EUR & GBP softer. The shift in relative yield spreads has weighed on EUR & GBP. AUD has held its ground, with AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP rising.• Data pulse. Also helping the AUD was a positive local employment report. Today, the market focus will be on the August China activity data. It has been a busy 24hrs with several data releases and policy decisions coming through. On net, the events have supported risk sentiment...

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14 Sep 2023

Currency volatility falls after US inflation fails to surprise

A flurry of action after yesterday’s release of the August consumer price report ultimately left currency and fixed-income markets largely unmoved. The dollar is flat and front-end yields are edging up. Measures of implied volatility in the equity and currency markets are plumbing seasonal lows. Both the headline and core price indices accelerated somewhat as Saudi-led output cuts lifted oil prices and transportation services costs, but underlying inflation stayed at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, keeping policy expectations essentially unchanged. The central bank is still seen staying on hold next week, tightening again in November, and beginning...

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12 Sep 2023

US inflation cross-currents

• Mixed signals. US equities a bit lower, bond yields mixed, while oil rose. EUR rebounded following a ‘hawkish’ news article. AUD consolidates.• US inflation. The latest US CPI report is released tonight. Headline inflation is set to jump because of oil, but core inflation is predicted to slow.• Diverging trends. Australian consumer sentiment remains low, but business conditions improved. The local jobs data is released tomorrow. Markets were generally well contained overnight as participants await tonight’s US CPI report (10:30pm AEST). In bonds, the US 2yr yield drifted a bit higher (+3bps to 5.02%), while long end yields moved...

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12 Sep 2023

Markets flat-line into US inflation report

Currency traders are so bored, they’re working just to pass the time this morning. Foreign exchange market ranges remain remarkably tight ahead of tomorrow’s US consumer inflation report, equity futures are pointing toward an incrementally-softer open, and Treasury yields are inching lower into what could be a news-light trading day. The pound is holding below the psychologically-important 1.25 threshold against the dollar after British wage growth stayed hot in the three months through July – making a compelling case for more Bank of England tightening – even as the broader labour market showed signs of easing, suggesting that a growth...

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