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CNY

09 Aug 2023

All eyes on US CPI

• Jittery markets. Higher oil & gas prices have raised some concerns inflation could re-accelerate over coming months. US equities slipped back.• US CPI. Focus is on tonight’s US inflation data. Base-effects have run their course. Inflation may start to surprise ‘optimistic’ markets.• AUD sluggish. AUD/USD hovering near the bottom end of its ~2-month range. The weakness (so far) in August is inline with the seasonal pattern. Markets remain somewhat jittery ahead of the release of the July US CPI report (10:30pm AEST), and with higher commodity prices fanning concerns of a re-acceleration in inflation down the track. Brent crude...

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08 Aug 2023

History doesn’t repeat, but…

“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes”. Based on our analysis of seasonal performance this statement seems to hold true for several currencies and other important financial markets. For the aficionados although we found no ‘stable statistical seasonality’, there seems to be a lot of ‘coincidence’ as a variety of things such as production and trade trends, financial year end related flows, asset allocation changes, and/or thinner liquidity conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer or Christmas period compound or counteract unfolding macroeconomic developments. Our Seasonality Heatmaps, provided at the bottom of this note, illustrate the average monthly performance of...

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07 Aug 2023

US CPI in focus this week

• Positive vibes. Risk markets have started the new week on firmer footing. US equities rose & the yield curve steepened. The USD consolidated.• Regional data. AUD has found some support. Today, Australian consumer & business sentiment is released, as is the China trade data.• US CPI. The latest US inflation read is in focus this week. Base-effects are no longer as favourable. A US inflation surprise could rattle market nerves. Risk sentiment started the new week on the front foot. US equities recovered some lost ground. The S&P500 rose 0.9% overnight, though this follows last week’s 2.3% fall (the...

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03 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

Higher yields. The upswing in long-end bond yields has continued. A combination of factors looks to be at play. FX markets were subdued overnight.Data flow. BoE hiked rates by another 25bps, but the tightening phase could be nearing the end. RBA Statement on Monetary Policy released today.US payrolls. US labour market data released tonight. Another solid jobs report could see pricing for another US Fed rate rise lift. The extension of the sell-off in global bonds has been a feature of markets. Long-end rates continue to lead the way with the US 10-year yield up another ~10bps. At ~4.18% the...

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02 Aug 2023

Pressure points

• Shaky sentiment. A better than expected US ADP employment report pushed up US bond yields. This supported the USD & weighed on equities.• AUD weaker. Negative risk sentiment & a stronger USD have exerted more pressure on the AUD. We think this can continue near-term.• Seasonal forces. August tends to be a negative month for growth-linked assets like the AUD. With the USD typically strengthening at this time of year. Risk sentiment remained negative overnight. Yesterday’s news that ratings agency Fitch had downgraded the US’ sovereign credit rating somewhat dampened risk appetite, though it was another strong US ADP...

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