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CNY

20 Jul 2023

Australian labour market: still on solid ground

Another month, another positive surprise in the Australian labour force lottery. ~32,600 jobs were added in June, led by further strength in full-time employment (+39,300). The positive run means the employment-to-population ratio remains at a record high (64.5%), with the unemployment rate holding steady at a downwardly revised 3.5%. Unemployment is just above its ~50-year lows. Other metrics like underemployment (now 6.4% compared to an average of 8.5% in the years before COVID) and hours worked show that the labour market is still chugging along. Conditions remain tight and hiring demand has (so far) moved in step with the jump...

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18 Jul 2023

Still solid US retail spending

• Mixed fortunes. Equities higher, while European bond yields fell after the ECB’s Knot watered down future rate hike expectations.• US data. Headline retail sales a bit softer, but the control group (which feeds into US GDP) was stronger. We expect another Fed hike next week.• NZ CPI. Annual headline inflation stepped down. Inflation is past its peak & NZ growth is slowing. We see AUD/NZD moving higher over the medium-term. Diverging trends across markets. Solid earnings results and decent US retail sales data (see below) has helped underpin equities. The lift in bank and artificial intelligence linked stocks pushed...

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18 Jul 2023

North American data prints bolster soft landing hopes

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but underlying consumer demand remained strong, bolstering “soft landing” hopes in financial markets. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in June, missing market forecasts for a 0.5 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell 1.4 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.3 percent gain. Receipts in the food and beverage category fell -0.7 percent, and restaurant sales gained just 0.1 percent. Sales at general merchandise stores inched -0.1 percent...

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17 Jul 2023

Sluggish China growth pulse

• China data. China’s post-COVID recovery continues to stumble. The pick-up in annual growth wasn’t as strong as anticipated.• Shaky sentiment. Growth concerns exerted some downward pressure on bond yields, commodities, the CNH, the AUD & NZD.• US trends. US retail sales due tonight. A solid report could see US rate expectations lift, supporting the USD. RBA minutes released today. Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week with China’s data batch in focus. China’s post-COVID recovery continues to stumble with the economy expanding by 0.8% in Q2. As a result, the pick-up in annual growth wasn’t...

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16 Jul 2023

Will the China data disappoint?

• US sentiment. US yields & the USD recovered some ground after US consumer confidence rebounded. US retail sales in focus ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.• China in focus. China Q2 GDP & monthly activity data released today. The post COVID recovery has been faltering. Soft data could dampen risk sentiment.• AUD sluggish. The AUD’s upswing has lost steam. We think offshore forces could outweigh another solid Australian labour market report this week. Relative to the substantial adjustment earlier in the week, markets were more sedate on Friday, with a bit of a reversal coming through in bonds and...

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