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15 Nov 2023

Markets extend post-inflation gains

Markets are still roaring upward after US inflation slowed in October, removing a key impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening campaign. Equity futures are pointing to further gains after stock markets added more than a trillion dollars in value during yesterday’s session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.47 percent after tumbling more than 19 basis points in the space of a day, and the dollar is flat after losing almost 1.2 percent against a basket of major currencies. Investors now expect the central bank to cut rates four times in 2024, up from the three previously expected, with...

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14 Nov 2023

US CPI jolts markets

• US CPI. Lower than expected US inflation generated a sharp downward repricing in US rates. The plunge in bond yields weighed on the USD & boosted sentiment.• AUD jolt. The backdrop has seen the AUD rebound with the over 2% rise over the past 24hrs unwinding the bulk of last week’s fall.• Data flow. Q3 wages released today, as is the China data batch. US retail sales are due tonight with the Australian jobs report out tomorrow. All eyes were on the latest reading on US CPI inflation, and the lower than projected figures jolted markets back to life...

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14 Nov 2023

Markets flatline ahead of inflation print

Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of this morning’s US consumer price index report, which is expected to show underlying inflation pressures remaining relatively stubborn, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish footing. Equity futures, Treasury yields, and the dollar are moving sideways. The Canadian dollar remains weak amid an absence of domestic catalysts – and against a more cautious risk backdrop. The British pound is almost unchanged against the dollar and euro after data showed wage growth slowing slightly in the third quarter, but remaining well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone. Earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7...

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13 Nov 2023

All eyes on US CPI

• Quiet trade. US equities & the USD consolidated, while yields slipped back a little. The AUD ticked up, although this follows last week’s negative run.• US inflation. US CPI released tonight. There are a few push-pull factors are play this month. Reaction in US yields & the USD is likely to be binary.• Event risks. The calendar is packed with other releases the next few days. China data batch & AU wages due tomorrow, & US retail sales is tomorrow night. It has been a subdued start to the week across markets with investors marking time ahead of the...

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13 Nov 2023

Weekly Chartbook

Sovereign risk isn’t likely to impact US rates. Oil markets are trading defensively. Inflation drivers have shifted. Retail sales remain far above pre-pandemic trend levels. China’s property bubble is still deflating.

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