Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve day to all who celebrate. Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chair, with Treasury yields firming, the dollar...

Relief rally slows ahead of Fed decision

16 June, 2026

Good morning. The dollar is flat, Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve, and oil prices continue to decline as traders await details of the US-Iran peace deal ahead of its signing on Friday...

RBA: Will they move again?

16 June, 2026

After delivering three consecutive interest rate hikes to start the year, as expected, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% today. The decision was “unanimous” as the RBA Board steps into a “hold-and-assess...

Another ceasefire deal. Now what?

15 June, 2026

• US/Iran news. Oil fell & equities rose on the back of US/Iran news. FX more muted reflecting the uncertainty & macro challenges that remain.• Event radar. China data due today. BoJ expected to...

Oil and the dollar slide on Iran deal, risk assets rally

15 June, 2026

Oil prices have tumbled and the dollar is trading near a two-week low after Washington and Tehran announced they had reached a tentative agreement to pause the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait...

US-Iran deal hopes lift global asset prices

12 June, 2026

Good morning. Oil prices are falling and risk assets are climbing after signals from both Washington and Tehran suggested the two sides are closing in on an agreement to pause hostilities and reopen the...

Let's make a deal (again)

11 June, 2026

• US/Iran. Latest reversal by President Trump boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, oil & bond yields fell. USD weaker. AUD rebounds after a torrid run.• Macro pulse. Energy/supply-chain disruption...

Dollar advances as rate differentials remain positive

11 June, 2026

Good morning. The dollar is trading on a stronger footing ahead of a producer price report that could lend further support. Firmness in the components that feed into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation...

Geopolitical tensions weigh on the AUD

10 June, 2026

• Geopolitical jitters. US/Iran tensions dampen sentiment. Equities lower, oil firmer. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD weaken. AUD at ~2-month low.• Data pulse. US CPI confirmed an oil-driven acceleration...

Bank of Canada holds, maintains rate neutrality

10 June, 2026

Surprising no one, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, while warning that it faces a ‘dilemma’ in responding to the risks bearing down on the economy. Higher energy...

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Sovereign risk isn’t likely to impact US rates.

Oil markets are trading defensively.

Inflation drivers have shifted.

Retail sales remain far above pre-pandemic trend levels.

China’s property bubble is still deflating.

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