Weekly Chartbook

The US job creation engine came back to life in November after October’s strike- and hurricane-related slowdown, but the rebound likely wasn’t strong enough to derail the Federal Reserve’s easing plans. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 jobs were added in the month – topping the 220,000-consensus forecast – and October’s headline print was revised...

• Marking time. Markets essentially in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. Easing French political concerns support EUR.• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls in focus. Reaction likely to be binary with stronger (weaker) data likely to support (weigh) on the USD.• AUD trends. AUD has clawed back some ground. US jobs report is a near-term risk event. RBA meets on Tuesday. US Fed meets the...

• Positive vibes. Equities power ahead. USD treads water. AUD underperforms. US data solid but not spectacular overnight.• AUD tumbles. Weaker than expected GDP weighs on AUD. Growth has slowed across the private sector but the level of activity is still high.• Policy impulse. RBA should hold steady next week. Upcoming US jobs report could impact market pricing for a December Fed rate cut. Global...

The dollar is pushing higher, Treasury yields are steadying, and equity futures are advancing as the French government moves closer to collapse and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver potentially market-moving remarks later this morning. The Korean won plunged yesterday when President Soon Suk Yeol shocked citizens by declaring martial law for the first time in 40 years, deploying...

The now dated Q3 Australian GDP has exerted downward pressure on the AUD (now ~$0.6415) with the already sluggish underlying growth picture undershooting analysts forecasts. This won’t surprise businesses at the coalface, particularly those in goods-producing and interest rate sensitive industries, with the GDP figures once again showing that higher mortgage rates and elevated prices are constraining...

• Political news. Political developments in South Korea & ongoing issues in France dominated the international news flow the past 24hrs.• Calm markets. However, market spillovers were limited. European equities rose. USD held steady, as did AUD. NZD eased slightly.• AU growth. Q3 GDP released today. Partial data points to a pick up in activity. A ‘soft landing’ looks to be intact. RBA...

The dollar is trading with a softer bias this morning after Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that he would support cutting rates at the central bank’s next meeting, helping put pressure on the front end of the US yield curve. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are inching higher as traders double down on bets that Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats will come to naught, the Japanese...

• Mixed markets. Equities push higher while French political issues weighed on the EUR. This supported the USD. AUD & NZD lost ground.• US data. ISM manufacturing better than expected. US job openings due tonight. Non-farm payrolls released on Friday night.• AU events. October retail sales stronger than anticipated. A promising sign for Q4. Q3 GDP released on Wednesday. RBA meets next week. There...

The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme is back to driving markets this morning, helping the dollar snap a three-day losing streak against most of its rivals. The euro is coming under pressure as the French government struggles to pass a budget, the Swiss franc is advancing amid stronger safe-haven flows, and major high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – are all off around half a percentage...

• Positive tone. A solid end to November with US & European equities rising. Bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD edged a bit higher.• JPY revival. JPY rebound has weighed on USD/JPY & the USD. Narrowing yield spreads as the BoJ hikes & others cut rates is JPY supportive.• Event radar. Locally, retail sales out today & GDP is on Weds. US Fed Chair Powell speaks this week & the latest...