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CNY

03 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

Higher yields. The upswing in long-end bond yields has continued. A combination of factors looks to be at play. FX markets were subdued overnight.Data flow. BoE hiked rates by another 25bps, but the tightening phase could be nearing the end. RBA Statement on Monetary Policy released today.US payrolls. US labour market data released tonight. Another solid jobs report could see pricing for another US Fed rate rise lift. The extension of the sell-off in global bonds has been a feature of markets. Long-end rates continue to lead the way with the US 10-year yield up another ~10bps. At ~4.18% the...

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02 Aug 2023

Pressure points

• Shaky sentiment. A better than expected US ADP employment report pushed up US bond yields. This supported the USD & weighed on equities.• AUD weaker. Negative risk sentiment & a stronger USD have exerted more pressure on the AUD. We think this can continue near-term.• Seasonal forces. August tends to be a negative month for growth-linked assets like the AUD. With the USD typically strengthening at this time of year. Risk sentiment remained negative overnight. Yesterday’s news that ratings agency Fitch had downgraded the US’ sovereign credit rating somewhat dampened risk appetite, though it was another strong US ADP...

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01 Aug 2023

AUD turnaround

• Market wobbles. Higher yields dampened risk appetite. USD stronger. News that Fitch downgraded the US may add to market nerves.• Weaker AUD. Shaky risk sentiment & a paring back of RBA rate hike pricing following yesterday’s on hold decision have weighed on the AUD.• US focus. In addition to any spillovers from the US ratings news, attention will remain on the US over coming days with non-farm payrolls due Friday. The new month has started with a bit of renewed turbulence. Bond yields across Europe and the US rose, led by long-end rates. The US 10yr yield increased ~6bps...

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01 Aug 2023

RBA holds firm

In what we think was another ‘finely balanced’ decision the RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.1% for the second straight month at today’s meeting. As stressed by the RBA interest rates have increased by 400bps since May last year. The tightening in policy is “working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy”, and the decision to hold firm once again “will provide further time to assess” the impacts of past moves. As our chart shows, this has been the most aggressive policy tightening in several decades with the upswing in interest rates...

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31 Jul 2023

Another ‘line-ball’ RBA call

• Mixed signals. Equities & bonds consolidate. Commodities firmer. In FX, the JPY has weakened, while the AUD has outperformed.• AUD rebound. More reports out of China pointing to growth-supportive measures coming through have boosted the AUD in the lead up to today’s RBA decision.• Hike or hold? There are arguments for & against a move. Markets & analysts are split. Given pricing a hike could see the AUD spike higher, but it may not last. It was a quiet end to the month for most markets. US equities edged higher (S&P500 +0.2%), bond yields consolidated (US 2yr and 10yr...

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