CNY

• Fed speak. Some measured comments by Chair Powell & weaker ISM data reinforced expectations the next move by the Fed could be a rate cut.• USD weaker. The drop in US bond yields has exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD has risen back up to the top of its multi-month range.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA’s last meeting of ’23 & Q3 GDP are due. Offshore, focus will be on US labour stats with non-farm payrolls rounding things out. Downward pressure on US bond yields and the USD returned on Friday with the previous days rebound fleeting. Comments...

• Mixed markets. Equities edged higher, bond yields rose, & the USD rebounded. The AUD has slipped back over the past few sessions.• Data pulse. Eurozone CPI slowed more than expected, weighing on EUR. US data showed spending & inflation are moderating. Unemployment claims are rising.• AUD dips. AUD has given back some ground. RBA next week. No change expected, but we think the pressure to move again in early-2024 remains. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets overnight. However, while some of it was macro related, month-end ‘window dressing’ as investors rebalance exposures after sharp moves over...

• Fed rhetoric. Comments by the Fed’s Waller were in focus. Waller’s message supported the view that the next Fed move will probably be a rate cut.• Market repricing. The pull-back in US bond yields & the USD extended. EUR, NZD & AUD edged up to multi-month highs. USD/JPY lost some ground.• Trans-Tasman Events. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator due today. A slowdown in annual inflation is predicted. RBNZ expected to keep rates steady. The pull-back in bond yields and the USD extended overnight as expectations that the US Fed’s tightening cycle has ended were reinforced by policymaker comments. The...

• Softer tone. Equities lost some ground & bond yields dipped back overnight. Oil still on the backfoot & the USD remains under pressure.• AUD upswing. AUD’s positive run continued. AUD above ~$0.66 for the first time since early-August. But following its rapid rise it may face some local hurdles.• Local data. AU retail sales due today & monthly CPI released tomorrow. Did cash conscious households hold back their spending for the ‘Black Friday’ sales? It has been a rather subdued start to the week. As our chart shows, the VIX Index (the volatility measure for the S&P500) is at...