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CNY

25 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Bulls Start Feeling A Little Hawkward

The greenback is retreating as bullish dollar sentiment softens ahead of tomorrow’s central bank meeting in Jackson Hole. Commodity-linked and high-beta currencies are climbing on the prospect of more stimulus from China, and the euro and pound are inching up on a broader sense of optimism – even as benchmark European energy prices break new records. Mr. Powell is expected to outline a policy path that takes rates into restrictive territory and keeps them there as the central bank responds to post-pandemic shifts in the global economy. In keeping with the academic nature of the conference, he is likely to...

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23 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Steamrolls Rivals Ahead of Powell Speech

Global markets are bowing before the almighty dollar once more as investors brace for Friday’s central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every major US equity index ended yesterday in the red, commodities are down again, and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat. Markets think Mr. Powell will assert the Federal Reserve’s intent to lift rates into restrictive territory – and keep them at those levels – in Friday’s speech. Terminal Fed Funds expectations have shot up from 3.25 percent in late July to 3.75 percent now, and implied rate cuts have fallen by more than a third as investors have...

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22 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Expectations for Jackson Hole Ramp Up Amid Late-August Trading Lull

With anticipation building in markets ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, the dollar is trading near a five-week high, short term Treasury yields are up, and equity futures are tumbling. Investors expect the Federal Reserve chair to tilt against the recent loosening in financial conditions, emphasizing the central bank’s willingness to hit the economic brakes as it works to bring inflation under control. But “there is no terror in the bang,” as Alfred Hitchcock put it, “only in the anticipation of it”. Mr. Powell will almost certainly acknowledge signs of slowing economic momentum and is unlikely...

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16 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Rising. We Don’t Know Why.

The dollar is climbing for a second day, but coherent explanations for the move are in short supply. One could argue that investors are clinging to safe havens as the prospect of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy darkens the outlook, but China’s peculiar growth model means it subtracts net demand from the rest of the world, and commodity-linked and growth-sensitive currencies appear to be holding ground so far. Europe is relatively quiet. The pound exhibited no discernible reaction earlier this morning on signs of cooling in the British labour market, and the euro remains under pressure on news...

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15 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Climbs on Big Trouble in Even Bigger China

Evidence of a deep and prolonged slowdown in the Chinese economy is taking a toll on global risk sentiment this morning, with safe haven demand sending the dollar higher amid parched liquidity conditions. Raw materials prices are falling, commodity-linked currencies are on the defensive, and North American equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. Treasury yields are essentially flat as some investors cling to bets on a “soft landing” — in which inflation decelerates but a deep recession is avoided — in the US economy. Consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in early August. According to estimates...

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