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CAD

25 Mar 2024

Liquidity Ebbs Into Holiday-Shortened Week

The trade-weighted dollar is holding steady and equity futures are poised to open lower as market participants prepare for a lower-intensity, holiday-thinned trading week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, oil prices are up modestly, and risk-sensitive units like the Canadian dollar are trading sideways ahead of a week dominated by the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator – when North American markets will be closed for Good Friday. Thin liquidity could boost the appeal of safe haven currencies in the days ahead, but some mean reversion could play out over a longer time horizon. With the global economy...

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22 Mar 2024

Dollar Strikes Back

Defying market expectations yet again, the greenback is trampling everything in its path as it heads toward a second week of gains. With global central banks on a synchronous easing trajectory, turbulence in China weighing on currencies across Asia, and US equity markets marching to new highs, rate differentials and global capital flows remain clearly dollar-supportive. Mexico’s peso is retracing some of its earlier losses, but remains weaker after the Banco de Mexico delivered a widely expected rate cut, and said it would take a data-dependent approach to future decisions. Voting by a 4-to-1 margin, policymakers yesterday opted to lower...

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21 Mar 2024

Central Bankers Turn Dovish, Markets Rally

Financial markets are in an ebullient mood after Federal Reserve officials said they still expect to cut rates three times this year, with disinflationary forces expected to resume in coming months. All three major North American equity indices closed at record highs and risk appetites roared back yesterday when Chair Powell avoided pushing back on easier financial conditions, and said recent price readings “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward two percent. I don’t think that story has changed”. Markets tend to focus on the shark closest...

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19 Mar 2024

Will the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ change?

• Firmer USD. US equities higher & bond yields a little lower. A higher USD/JPY has boosted the USD. AUD & NZD have shed some more ground.• BoJ & RBA. BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007. But markets were underwhelmed. RBA tweaked its forward guidance to more ‘neutral’ language.• US Fed. Focus tomorrow morning will be on the US Fed’s forecasts & guidance. No change to 2024 projections could disappoint ‘hawkish’ expectations. Following a bit of volatility in yesterday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan changes (and RBA meeting) asset markets were more subdued overnight as...

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19 Mar 2024

Canadian Inflation Slows Sharply, Clobbering Loonie

Canadian headline inflation decelerated faster than expected again last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada continued to weaken – helping clear the way for a rate cut by June. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in January, and well below consensus expectations set closer to 3.1 percent. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.3 percent – also undershooting market forecasts for a 0.6 percent gain. Shelter costs again provided the...

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