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CAD

03 May 2024

Risk Appetite Improves as US Payrolls Report Looms

The US dollar is cruising into a third day of losses and Treasury yields are softening even as investors brace for what is expected to be another strong payrolls report. North American equity futures are rallying ahead of the open after Apple reported stronger-than-expected earnings and provided a more optimistic sales forecast, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are advancing off very low levels. Economist estimates going into this morning’s non-farm payrolls number are widely dispersed, ranging from a 150,000-position gain on the low end to 280,000 on the high end, with the median landing near the 240,000 mark....

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01 May 2024

Soaring US Yields Set Stage for Fed’s ‘Hawkish Hold’

The dollar is trading near a five-month high after data showed US wage growth accelerating, further reducing market odds on rate cuts this year. Yesterday’s update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage growth saw the Employment Cost Index accelerate to the fastest pace in a year, adding to last week’s inflation data in forcing markets to question whether the central bank will be able to lower interest rates from what it currently sees as restrictive levels. Two-year Treasury yields are holding above the 5 percent threshold and traders are now pricing in just a single rate cut in...

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30 Apr 2024

Canada’s Economy Slows as US Wage Gains Accelerate

The Canadian economy ran out of momentum toward the end of the first quarter, helping bolster market-implied odds on an imminent pivot to easing by the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product missing forecasts with a 0.2 percent expansion in February, following a downwardly-revised 0.5-percent expansion in January. The services sector led gains for a second month, but goods-producing industries flatlined. Just 12 of 20 economic sectors reported positive growth, down from the prior month’s 18. On a year-over-year basis, activity rose 0.8 percent, with the first quarter tracking toward a...

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30 Apr 2024

Fed Fears Dampen Market Enthusiasm

Traders are moving onto a more cautious footing today as the prospect of a ‘hawkish hold’ at tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting comes into view. The dollar is trading on a modestly weaker footing against the yen and euro, but is maintaining strength relative to most other majors as interest rate differentials continue to provide lift. The Canadian dollar is softening ahead of a much-awaited gross domestic product report. Yields were left unmoved yesterday afternoon after the Treasury said it would borrow more than expected over the coming quarter. According to its updated quarterly refunding plans, the federal government will issue...

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29 Apr 2024

Yen Rollercoaster Accelerates

The Japanese yen is stabilising after an extraordinarily-turbulent session. With markets closed for the Golden Week holiday, the exchange rate briefly crashed through the 160-per-dollar threshold for the first time since 1990, and then reversed almost five big figures higher when rumours of central bank intervention hit the wires early this morning – generating a total intra-day move that was the widest since December 2022, and among the top 20 dollar-yen trading ranges in modern history. Official confirmation hasn’t yet been provided, and evidence of the traditional “rate checking” activity from the Bank of Japan is lacking thus far, but...

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