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CAD

Canadian Inflation Slows Sharply, Clobbering Loonie

Canadian headline inflation decelerated faster than expected again last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada continued to weaken – helping clear the way for a rate cut by June. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in January, and well below consensus expectations set closer to 3.1 percent. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.3 percent – also undershooting market forecasts for a 0.6 percent gain. Shelter costs again provided the...

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When Carry Met Rally

We’ll have what they’re having. North American equity futures are setting up for a solid open after Nvidia Corp. unveiled a significantly faster artificial intelligence processor, Treasury yields are stable on hopes the Federal Reserve will leave its dovish forward guidance intact in tomorrow’s decision, and risk appetite is improving in currency markets as conditions for the global carry trade remain supportive. The Bank of Japan ended a decades-long experiment with unconventional monetary policy last night, and markets shrugged. Policymakers voted by a 7-2 margin to lift the key target for short-term rates to a range of 0-to-0.1 percent, stop...

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March Madness Begins

Well, madness for economics nerds anyway. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady near the 4.3 percent mark, and most major currency pairs are range-bound ahead of a week in which central banks in Australia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States will deliver rate decisions. Tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan could raise rates into positive territory for the first time since 2007. A significant share of market participants expect policymakers to lift the overnight and uncollateralized call rates by 10 basis points and end the yield...

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Currency Market Focus Turns Toward Fed Dot Plot

The greenback remains modestly stronger after yesterday’s data showed inflation running too hot for the Federal Reserve’s comfort. Equity investors – largely prepared for a repeat of January’s stronger-than-expected print – shrugged and kept bidding indices higher. But with core price growth topping expectations for a second month in a row, currency traders doubled down on bets interest rate differentials would remain tilted in the dollar’s favour, temporarily snapping a month-long slide in the DXY index. The “dot plot” presented after next week’s Fed meeting could prove more important than the decision itself. A material change seems unlikely, but remarkably-loose...

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Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Release

The dollar’s selloff is slowing ahead of inflation numbers that could have a direct bearing on the policy outlook presented during next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Equity futures are trending upward, but Treasury yields are holding flat, and high-beta currencies like the Canadian dollar are coming under modest selling pressure as traders cut risk. February’s consumer price index is expected to show headline prices accelerating while the core measure slows – but considerable uncertainty remains around whether January’s hotter-than-expected numbers marked the beginning of a trend. If price growth remains stubbornly high, officials could reduce the number of expected rate...

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