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CAD

Bulls Stampede Into Inflation Data

Market optimism is rising ahead of a key US inflation report that is expected to show price pressures softening on a sequential basis in April. Our summary of updated estimates provided by the biggest global banks and investment firms suggests that the headline basket is seen rising 0.4 percent month over month, bringing the annual change down to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in March. The core measure is believed to have climbed 0.3 percent, falling to 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent in the prior month. Traders are positioning for an asymmetric market reaction. A strong print could be seen...

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Markets Wait to Exhale

With market participants on hold ahead of several key US inflation prints, the dollar is essentially unchanged, Treasury yields are flat, and North American equity indices are moving sideways ahead of the open. Softness in this morning’s producer price data could touch off a relief rally, but the release shouldn’t be as market-moving as others in recent memory. Somewhat unusually, today’s measure of input costs is scheduled before the broader consumer price index is published, making it difficult to estimate the impact on the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – the core personal consumption expenditures index – due for...

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Currencies Stabilise as Inflation Data Looms

Foreign exchange markets are holding steady this morning as traders take cover ahead of a series of critical inflation reports that could determine the outlook for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. The dollar is little changed against its major rivals, Treasury yields are moving sideways, and North American equity futures are pointing to incremental gains at the open. Today’s Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed is likely to echo Friday’s equivalent from the University of Michigan, with inflation expectations rising toward a six-month high. Household views on inflation tend to follow changes in gas...

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Loonie Jumps on Jobs Beat

The Canadian economy generated more jobs than anticipated in April, helping reduce market expectations for an imminent pivot toward easier monetary policy from the Bank of Canada. 90,000 new positions were added in the month and the unemployment rate held at 6.1 percent in March. Consensus estimates had pointed to 20,000 new hires, with elevated population growth and still-high participation rates pushing unemployment to 6.2 percent. The services sector generated most of the gains, but gains were widespread, with professional, scientific and technical services, accommodation and food, health care and social assistance, and natural resources industries offsetting modest losses in...

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US Exceptionalism Fades, Weighing On Greenback

The “US exceptionalism” trade took another blow yesterday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to an eight-month high. The jump in jobless claims – up 22,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 231,000 in the week ended May 4 – surprised economists and helped bolster expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, helping erode the dollar’s yield premium and lift other currencies in relative terms. Softness in the labour market dovetails with our belief that re-acceleration hopes for the economy have become overblown, and we think that...

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