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CAD

05 Sep 2024

Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears

The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury yields are stabilising after yesterday’s tumble and equity futures are advancing ahead of this morning’s weekly jobless claims number, but directional position-taking remains restrained, with tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report poised to play a pivotal role in determining market outcomes across virtually every major asset class. The number of job openings fell in July to the lowest level since the start of 2021, according to yesterday’s Job...

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04 Sep 2024

Rate expectations jolted

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market is rebalancing. Fed rate cuts are coming. Non-farm payrolls will make or break the case for 50bps.• AU GDP. Weak growth in Q2, but the level of activity remains high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks today on “the costs of high inflation”. A mixed performance across markets with some of the moves from the previous day extending while others, particularly in FX, partially unwound. European and US...

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04 Sep 2024

Bank of Canada Cuts, Softens Dovish Stance

As had been widely expected, the Bank of Canada delivered a third consecutive rate cut this morning, and language in the accompanying communications helped prepare the ground for further easing in the coming months – but officials stopped short of pulling the fire alarm, suggesting that cuts will proceed at a gradual pace. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged a continued easing in price pressures, with the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation slowing further, and shelter cost increases beginning to decelerate. Overall, “excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while...

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04 Sep 2024

Australia GDP: growth vs levels

The dated Q2 Australian GDP confirmed what we should have already known. The growth pulse is subdued with higher interest rates and cost of living squeeze working to constrain consumer spending, construction, and broader business investment. The Australian economy expanded by just 0.2% in Q2, lowering the annual run-rate to a meagre 1%pa (chart 1). Outside of COVID this is the slowest annual pace since the early-1990’s recession with household consumption particularly weak despite the ongoing drawdown of COVID-era ‘excess savings’ (chart 2). Indeed, slicing and dicing the data further shows that growth across the private sector has stalled with...

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03 Sep 2024

Risk aversion returns

• Risk off. Growth worries have weighed on cyclical assets. US equities fell, as did base metal prices. Bond yields declined. USD & JPY stronger.• AUD weaker. Backdrop has exerted downward pressure on the AUD. There could be more to come if the US jobs data generates USD support.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released today. Another weak quarter of growth likely. But level of demand is still high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. It has been a negative start to September with a bout of risk aversion rippling through markets overnight as the US returned from its long weekend. Some...

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