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CAD

Holding on, but risks remain

• Consolidation. Oil a little lower due to positive rhetoric. US equities tread water. USD a bit firmer. NZD a relative outperformer. AUD drifts a fraction lower.• Data pulse. Global PMIs out today. AU jobs report due Thursday. RBA Gov. Bullock acknowledges higher unemployment needed to ease inflation. Global Trends With news flow limited, financial market movements were modest overnight. Some positive vibes about the state of play in the Middle East caused oil prices to dip a little with brent crude slipping back to ~US$98.50/brl. President Trump indicated that US officials met with Iran’s delegation at the UN for...

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Currency markets calm as optimism returns

Good morning. The dollar is edging lower as tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing and technology shares advance on a renewed wave of optimism. Brent is trading below $99 a barrel — down from $108 a week ago — after Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline and Reuters reported that Iran is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if America lifts its blockade. Valuations are climbing across the artificial intelligence sector after Meta’s new assistant, Muse, received positive reviews and a pickup in users, helping justify massive capital expenditures from the major hyperscalers....

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Hawks in the Fed nest

• Fed hike. A ‘hawkish’ US Fed rate rise. Forecasts point to more ‘tightening’ later this year. US equities dip. USD firmer. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Macro pulse. US retail sales stronger than expected. US Fed has more work to do. BoE tonight & BoJ tomorrow. RBA predicted to hike rates later this month. Global Trends Economic events in the US were in focus overnight with a strong retail sales report compounded by a ‘hawkish’ interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US retail sales grew 1.2% in August, a positive signal about broader macro momentum given...

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Tension rises ahead of Fed decision

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. The dollar is holding firm, with investors and economists overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will raise rates for the first time in more than three years, amid a surge in global energy prices and a jump in long-term yields. Oil remains above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia, after coming under sustained attack from Iran and its allies, suspended loading at its Yanbu port and cancelled some shipments to Europe. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below 5%, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open....

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Will the US Fed rattle markets?

• Risk wobbles. Higher oil prices & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD drift back. AUD ~1.5% from last weeks peak.• US rates. US Fed in focus with a hike expected tomorrow (4am AEST). But Fed may struggle to be more ‘hawkish’ than what is priced. USD volatility likely. Global Trends Cyclical assets remain on the backfoot with the combination of higher oil prices (brent crude has edged up towards ~US$109/brl, levels last traded in mid-May with the re-escalation in the US/Iran conflict showing no signs of improvement) and rising bond yields dampening sentiment. The inflation...

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