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CAD

26 Aug 2026

RBA losing patience?

• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in? Global Trends A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets overnight with US equities a touch softer (NASDAQ -0.1%), bond yields rising a little (US rates rose ~2-4bps across the curve), oil nudging up (brent crude +0.5% to US$87.45/brl), and the USD firmer against...

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26 Aug 2026

Markets steady as dollar upside remains capped

Good morning. Currency markets are holding steady ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures index—an update that could shape expectations for interest rates ahead of Kevin Warsh’s closely-watched Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Oil prices are edging lower, helping to ease pressure on long-term yields, after Iran and Oman said they were discussing opening a “joint temporary navigational corridor” through the Strait of Hormuz—an agreement that could loosen global supply conditions and alleviate inflation pressures in energy-dependent economies. And after the bell, Nvidia’s second-quarter results will offer a read on whether...

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25 Aug 2026

Upbeat tone. But for how long?

• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility. Global Trends Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned by a dip in oil. The tech-centric NASDAQ (+0.7%) outperformed the broader S&P500 (+0.3%), while US bond yields shed ~6-7bps across the curve. The US 10yr rate (now ~4.63%) has slipped towards the bottom of its 1-month range, however...

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25 Aug 2026

Currencies steady as conflicting forces keep the dollar hemmed in

Good morning. Measures of implied volatility are holding steady across financial markets, as the drumbeat of economic data slows and after the Trump administration’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran’s trading partners turned out to involve more rubber dinghies than landing craft. Treasury yields are edging lower (albeit from elevated levels), equity futures are advancing, and currency markets are firmly range-bound, with most major currencies down by less than 0.3% against the dollar since Friday’s close. Oil prices are slipping, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate down by more than 3% from yesterday. After threatening “the single greatest financial offensive...

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24 Aug 2026

Trump threatens further tariff increases on Canadian goods

Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian auto and steel products to 50%, a step that would mark a further breach of the USMCA agreement negotiated in his first term. The Canadian dollar is coming under selling pressure and interest rates are falling as traders price in a slower economy and a more dovish Bank of Canada. “On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%,” Trump wrote on social media. “Their ridiculously high tariffs on our Farmers and farm products has made life impossible...

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