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CAD

Volatility creeps higher with US yields, keeping safe havens bid

Financial markets are facing headwinds this morning from higher interest rates and a slowing Chinese economy. Equity futures are setting up for a lower open, US Treasury yields are inching lower after again challenging multi-decade highs during yesterday’s session, and commodity prices are trading sideways as markets simultaneously downgrade Chinese demand forecasts and raise stimulus expectations. Foreign exchange markets are trading on a mixed footing, with risk-sensitive currencies fighting an increase in implied volatility expectations – partly seasonal, partly rates-driven, and partly China-related – even as domestic yields play catch up with the United States North America Expectations are rising ahead...

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Dollar slips as global yields inch higher

The dollar is retreating from yesterday’s extreme levels as currency markets stage a modest and hesitant recovery against a materially-tighter financial backdrop. Benchmark Treasury yields holding near a 15-year peak on fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, and rates in most major advanced economies are pushing upward in sympathy. North America A record of the Fed’s July policy meeting showed officials remaining relatively hawkish. Some policymakers turned more cautious, pointing out that risks had become “more two-sided,” making it “important that the committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent over-tightening of policy against the cost...

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Markets see clouds in the US economy’s silver lining

“In the beginning the Universe was created,” said Douglas Adams in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. “This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move”. Markets seem to be taking a similar view on yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated US retail sales report, with an aversion to risk becoming more pronounced as investors grapple with the prospect of higher long-term rates. The dollar is holding its gains and equity futures are setting up for a weaker open even as two- and ten-year Treasury yields fade from their highs. Risk-sensitive units like the Australian and...

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Under pressure

• Mixed signals. Weak China data & positive surprises in US retail sales, Canadian inflation, & UK wages has rattled market nerves.• Negative vibes. The deluge of data has seen US/European bond yields rise & equity markets fall. USD remains firm. AUD touched another 2023 low.• Upcoming events. No change expected from the RBNZ today. UK CPI, US housing & production data, & the FOMC meeting minutes also due. It has been a busy 24hrs with markets digesting a deluge of data. There were mostly positive surprises with activity and/or inflation metrics generally coming in hotter than expected, though China...

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US consumer spending rebounds, supporting yields and the dollar

The dollar is up and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat as benchmark Treasury yields near the highest levels in almost 15 years on stronger-than-expected retail sales numbers. North America US retail spending jumped by more than forecast last month as underlying consumer demand remained strong, keeping monetary tightening expectations aloft. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants climbed 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in July, beating consensus estimates closer to 0.4 percent and rising 3.2 percent over a year prior. Gas station sales climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month as...

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