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13 Jul 2023

The loonie might follow a multi-phased trajectory.

Taken in sum, a prolonged period of calm could see the Canadian dollar rally in the short term, outperforming regions that are facing more obvious structural challenges – like the United Kingdom, the euro area, Japan, and China – in capitalizing on dollar weakness. But growth risks, comparatively low yields, and volatility sensitivities – particularly relative to US equity markets – should represent serious headwinds for the exchange rate beyond the early autumn. Rolling 30-day CADUSD correlations, correlation coefficient

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11 Jul 2023

US CPI in focus

• Softer USD. Strong UK wages has bolstered BoE rate hike expectations, supporting GBP. The JPY has also continued to recover lost ground.• US inflation. Large base-effects & some other drivers point to a sizeable step down in US CPI. If realised, this could exert more pressure on the USD.• AUD events. Ahead of the US CPI, RBA Governor Lowe speaks & the RBNZ policy decision is announced. No change by the RBNZ is expected. Mixed fortunes across markets, with focus still very much on tonight’s US CPI report (10:30pm AEST). Offshore equity indices edged higher (US S&P500 and EuroStoxx50...

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11 Jul 2023

It’s quiet. Too quiet.

Currency markets are broadly lacking in conviction this morning, with the British pound the only significant mover among the majors, and the dollar inching lower against its rivals in generally-directionless trading.  Equity markets and commodity prices are unimpressed after the People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration told lenders to roll over outstanding loans to property developers – a step that might prevent a string of defaults, but which won’t do much to improve household confidence. After what might have been the biggest property bubble in history, many cities are overbuilt, local governments and millions of households are carrying...

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10 Jul 2023

Price action slows ahead of US inflation and Canadian policy decision

Markets seem to be tiptoeing into a data-light week with a sense of trepidation.Equity futures are weaker, Treasury yields are ticking lower, and benchmark dollar indices are pushing higher ahead of the opening bell, suggesting that risk appetites remain relatively constrained after Friday’s big moves. The euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are all sitting in defensive positions, with technical indicators pointing to rangebound price action ahead. Inflation flat-lined in China last month, and a sharp decline in producer prices suggested that the world’s biggest manufacturer is beginning to export deflation. Headline consumer prices were unchanged in June relative to a year earlier, and...

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06 Jul 2023

Unsurprising Fed minutes push yields higher

Odds on another rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were left slightly higher yesterday after a record of June’s discussion showed officials were modestly more hawkish than expected. Staff forecasts pointed to a deceleration in growth and price pressures through the latter half of the year, and there was considerable uncertainty about where the cumulative effects of previous tightening efforts would appear, but “almost all” agreed that rates would need to climb further this year – and some favoured moving more quickly because “momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated and there were few clear signs that...

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