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AUD

30 May 2023

Will the China PMIs underwhelm?

• Shaky sentiment. US debt ceiling yet to be fully put to bed. US & European confidence weakened, a sign the global downturn is gathering pace.• Currency concerns. JPY weakness has seen officials fire a shot across the bow of markets. A lower currency makes the inflation fight harder.• AUD events. Today, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, the monthly CPI indicator is released, and the China PMIs are due. Some negative vibes across markets as the US and UK returned to work after their long weekend. The US debt ceiling has yet to be fully put to bed. While the in-principle...

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29 May 2023

Subdued holiday markets

• Holiday markets. Limited moves with the US, UK, & parts of Europe on holiday. In-principle agreement to raise US debt ceiling to be voted on over coming days.• Global data pulse. Global data flow picks up later this week. China PMIs (Weds), Eurozone CPI (Thurs) & US labour market report (Fri) in focus.• AUD consolidating. Global forces should act as a AUD headwind, offsetting support expected to be generated by upcoming local events. A quiet 24hrs across global markets with the US, UK, and some European countries on holiday, and no major economic data released. Across the markets that...

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28 May 2023

Debt ceiling deal (nearly) done

• US debt ceiling. An agreement to raise the ceiling looks to have been reached. It must now be voted on by both chambers of Congress.• Back to fundamentals. Removing a tail risk should see markets refocus on the policy outlook. US inflation is still too high. Another strong labour market report should be USD supportive.• AUD cross-currents. AUD found some support. Shift in relative interest rate expectations & softer global growth pulse likely to limit the AUD’s rebound. Markets ended last week on more positive footing, with equities rising (the US S&P500 rose 1.3% while the tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed...

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25 May 2023

AUD & NZD pressure points

• USD upswing. Market pricing for the US Fed has shifted substantially over recent weeks. This is supporting the USD. AUD hit a 2023 low overnight.• US debt ceiling. Limited progress with the ‘x-date’ fast approaching. Ratings agencies have flagged the risk of a US sovereign rating downgrade.• AUD underperformer. The global backdrop is weighing on the AUD. Australian retail sales released today, but offshore forces are more important Mixed fortunes across asset markets, although underlying issues and risks such as the US debt ceiling negotiations, slowing growth, and still high inflation, remain firmly in place. US equities rose as...

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24 May 2023

Shake, rattle & roll

• Negative vibes. Little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations, ongoing growth worries, & worrying UK inflation data weighed on risk sentiment.• Stronger USD. The backdrop has boosted the USD. Base metals & equities declined. AUD dipped to ~$0.6540, its lowest level since mid-November.• AUD pressure. Except for AUD/NZD, AUD also underperformed on the crosses. More pressure on the AUD expected, but stats show it is entering rarefied air. Another negative night for markets with little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations, growth worries, and some ‘sticky’ inflation data weighing on risk sentiment. Running through the list, the political impasse...

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