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A stable global economy could provide support.

For the Australian dollar, a more bullish scenario than our baseline outlook would stem from China’s economic revival exceeding expectations – particularly if it is led by a policy-induced upswing in commodity-intensive infrastructure spending. Stronger momentum in China would be a positive impulse for Australia’s terms of trade, the domestic and regional economies, and the currency. In our opinion, the Australian dollar could also outperform if the global economy remains resilient in the face of tighter monetary and credit conditions, and inflation decelerates substantially without aggressive policy actions inflicting much damage on labour markets or generating financial stability risks. However, we judge this type of situation to be relatively unlikely.

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